Mu Mafuta US: mtengo mtengo, kukula voliyumu, mphamvu

Ngati inu mukuyang'ana pa msika mafuta dziko lili padziko lonse, tikhoza kunena kuti US ndi dziko lokha mu dziko, amene wakhala akuchita mu chuma shale. mayiko ena akhala anasiya mfundo imeneyi, chifukwa iwo amaona wopanda pake ndi ndalama mtengo. Yogwira kupanga mafuta mu US anayamba yekha mu 2014 pakati chilimwe. zoyesayesa kale kukhala madipoziti mafuta mu Poland ndi ku Hungary, koma izi zimawakanika. chiyembekezo chachikulu anatumizidwa ku Ukraine, koma si ntchito kwa 2018.

ntchito Shale mu US

US yopanga mafuta shale walimbikitsa mu 2014. Pakali pano, ntchito US ulendo wa 10% kupanga mafuta padziko lonse. Back mu 2005 pa dera la State zopanga dongosolo la okwana 7.5 migolo ya mafuta, ndipo mu 2014 chizindikiro ichi anafika mtengo migolo 9 miliyoni. Against maziko a migolo 90 miliyoni, mayiko onse ncho pamodzi, ubwino ndi yofunika kwambiri. Ndi ubwenzi ndi kukhala ndalezo kuti akankhidwira kuchepetsa lakuthwa mu mtengo "golide wakuda".

Kodi mtengo wa mafuta ku msika mafuta zipangitsa ndi profitability wa chitukuko cha mphamvu mu US?

mu US mtengo wa mafuta kupanga losiyana kwambiri ndi dera. The mtengo kukhala gwero amakhudza akuya zosayembekezereka wa mafuta ndi kupezeka kwa madzi abwino. Pofika kumayambiriro kwa chaka cha 2005, pafupifupi kampani okhazikika kupanga mafuta shale, anali kukwaniritsa mlingo popanda kumawononga kwa mtengo wa yamasika pa msika pa $ 75 pa mbiya. Chaka zapitazo kupanga US kukhala ndakuwonetserani, mu msika lonse, sitiyenera kugwa m'munsimu madola 57. Pali zigawo, monga North Dokota kumene m'zigawo ndi yosafuna mafuta pa mtengo wa $ 42 pansipa. US yopanga mafuta shale m'chigawo Mackenzie ndalama okha $ 24. Ngati musunga zizindikiro zonse pamodzi, n'zoonekeratu kuti mafuta gawo la America amatha kupirira osati monga drawdowns pa msika lonse. Ziribe kanthu momwe zinthu akupangidwa kutukula mafuta ndi wawo 10% wa mtengo uliwonse mbiya. Wodzidalira kumapangitsa chakuti mtengo wa "golide wakuda" sakhala ndi misonkho ntchito excise, amene m'mayiko ena amapanga pafupifupi 60% ya mtengo woyambira. N'chifukwa chiyani tikutero? Ndithu chabe, misonkho pa US makampani mphamvu si mlandu.

Kuti umabweretsa "shale zisinthe"?

Shale kusintha America ali chiyembekezo chabwino. Ichi ndi chifukwa makamaka chakuti mafuta kupanga mu US chakhala mtengo. Silipita izo, osati chitukuko cha madipoziti latsopano, komanso oyamba mu ndondomeko kukhala umisiri watsopano wa mafuta. Malinga kuwerengetsera kuyambirira, mu pafupi tsogolo otaya ndalama pa chimodzi cha utumiki bwino akhoza kuchepetsedwa ndi 40%. Mphamvu kukula mu mafuta kupanga US chifukwa limatchula za malamulo. Companies zikugwira ntchito m'dera lino, si msonkho, chifukwa mpaka posachedwapa, makampani sichinayambe ankaona zingamuthandize. msika chimakhala chogwidwa ndi makampani ang'onoang'ono, omwe cholinga kuonjezera ndalama zawo ndi kufuna funa kusalumikizana njira yopanga. Iwo aganyali zawo ku mbali ya chitukuko.

Kafukufuku m'tsogolo

Buku kupanga mafuta US mu 2015-2016, malinga ndi akatswiri, kokha kuonjezera. Ngakhale kugwa mu mitengo dziko msika wa padziko 60% sanali bwanji zinthu ndi chiyembekezo. Mphamvu yochepa Mapa wa Zing'onozing'ono Energy Outlook wa bungwe lalikulu kwambiri dziko ndi chidaliro. Iye akulankhula za cholinga cha boma kuswa timva yake. Buku pazipita kupanga mafuta mu United States analembedwa mu 1970 pa migolo miliyoni 9,6. EIA molimba akulengeza kuti m'pofunika kudikira kuonjezera kupanga mafuta buku matani 600 zikwi ndi pakati pa 2015 ndi chiyambi cha 2016 - ndi mbiya 200 zikwi patsiku.

Pa tycoons achiyesa mafuta?

Ngakhale kuti kupanga mafuta mu United States ndi njira yogwira maganizo pa zinthu zabwino zam'tsogolo a magulu mafuta anagawanika pakati eni. Makampani ena mongoyembekezera anasiya chitukuko cha madipoziti latsopano ndi inaimitsidwa kafukufuku, anthu ena zinthu ziyenda bwino ndi chidaliro ponena za m'tsogolo, osati kudalira kuchira msika wa mtengo wa mafuta ndi zosakwana ku mtengo wa $ 100.

Bright tsogolo atamukoka chakuti America ati kutuluka kudalira mafuta dziko. Ngati mu 2005 dziko adalira mafuta ogulitsa ndi 60%, ndiye ndi 2011 chithunzi ichi anagwa 42%. azimuth sichinasinthe, ndi lero, ndi mosemphanitsa - chawonjezeka. Opanga akhoza bwinobwino kudalira kufunika kwa mafuta mu boma. Ngakhale izo sizingatheke kuzindikira mafuta pa msika lonse, zinthu zidzakuyenderani pansi nyundo pa msika zoweta.

Kodi akatswiri amanena?

Malinga ndi akatswiri, mu 2015 mtengo wa Brent yosakongola adzaleka mkati madola 58 pa mbiya. The odziŵa 2016 ngakhale kwabasi kundiposa. Pamene US mafuta kupanga ndalama adzaleka ndi wachitatu, msika mtengo wake anafika madola 75. Mphamvu gwero la WTI ndalama, motero, $ 55 ndi 72. The mafuta msika akatswiri amavomereza kuti ndalama "golide wakuda" mpaka pano mu nthawi saganizira kwambiri. Mu zaka zingapo zotsatira, mtengo sadzatha kuti angafikire mulingo wa $ 100. Zoterezi awonekere ndi akuchedwa khumi ndi. mu Kukula US mafuta kupanga silingafotokoze atawalamula. Chiwerengero cha umisiri omwe amafunika mafuta, kuwonjezeka mwadongosolo. mtengo kuchepetsedwa zosakhalitsa chikugwirizana ndi stagnation mu chitukuko cha chuma m'mayiko ambiri. Mwamsanga pamene zinthu zinayambanso kuyenda bwino, izo si pokha pokha mwana'yo komanso mwina athyola $ 100 malire.

US mafuta msika

US akuona chikhulupiriro pa dziko msika ndipo ngakhale zoyesayesa za OPEC limati membala kuti adzawathamangitsa mpikisano ku kagawo kakang'ono korona kulephera. Monga kuchepa kwa anthu, limene kale lomwe linapanga mbali wamkulu wa America, mwa kundipatsako ukuwonjezeka. Chifukwa, mtengo wa mafuta kugwa. zinthu angatchedwe ankafuna gwetsa osewera ofooka malonda. Dziwani osati kukula kwa mafuta kupanga mu US, komanso malo geopolitical. Pa gawo la chilengedwe boma mpikisano ndi ufulu kuchita malonda mu gawo la mphamvu. Mu osewera ang'onoang'ono, ndipo ali ambiri, ndi dzanja ufulu. Ndi kukhulupirika kwa boma limalola boma molimba imani pa mapazi awo ngakhale mu nthawi zovuta. Chikoka cha US pa zinthu ikukula komanso kuyamika mwadongosolo kuonjezera nkhokwe zake "golide wakuda".

Motsutsa likhale mayiko amalembedwa chidwi yojambula, kupanga mafuta mu United States. mtengo tchati zowoneka zikusonyeza kuti boma kwathunthu redesigned mafuta msika lonse. Kwa nthawi yoyamba mu zaka zambiri m'mayiko OPEC ndi Russia adzakhala ndi mpikisano woyenera. Ngati kale boma anachita zinthu zofuna zake zokha ndi kusankha kutenga nkhani yekha ake mfundo ubwino tsopano kwathunthu ndikusintha. Mwa njira iyi zidzatheke pofuna kukwaniritsa ziziyenda ndi gawo mafuta.

chikhulupiriro kumbuyo

America si tinafa pa msika mafuta, izo likunena kuwonjezeka kumbuyo kwake. Choncho, malonda zitsime zamafuta zogwirizana ndi buku la imports khoka m'dera la masiku 164. Mu December 2013, chiwerengerochi wofanana tsiku 171, ndipo mu 2007 pamaso mavuto - masiku 80. Imports kwa Canada ndi Mexico mtengo uwu sikuphatikizidwa. Choncho ukuwonjezeka mlingo ndi mfundo za masiku 279. Ndipo ngati inu kuganizira osati nkhokwe malonda komanso njira, zimakwana adzakhala basi kukhala wolingana ndi masiku 450. Ichi ndi wapamwamba zoteteza gawo lotetezedwa kuti adzasunga chuma cha charo ngakhale ndi disruptions okwanira. Iye akhoza kukhala ndi kutsogolera kwa akuponya mitengo mafuta pa dziko msika kwambiri m'munsi kuposa chithunzi chenicheni cha $ 47 mu miyezi ingapo. Liwiro kugwa zanyengo pakati pa kasupe 2015.