Pofikira ku Ukraine. Kodi zikutanthauza kuti Ukraine Sanapezeke? Ulosi wa ofikira ku Ukraine

Mapeto a 2014 chidali chovuta kwambiri kwa Ukraine. Mu misa waukulu komanso atolankhani zambiri mungathe kumva kuti dziko posachedwapa chabe sadzatha kulipira ngongole, ndi kusakhulupirika mu Ukraine n'zosapeŵeka. The prerequisites chifukwa mumaganiza ngati ali ndi vuto lalikulu mu gawo ndalama. Mantha anapanga chifukwa kuchepetsa yokulirapo mu chuma chifukwa zomwe boma ndipo anali kutsatira ntchito zawo.

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Monga wa January 31, 2014 ngongole yachilendo wa dziko anakwana biliyoni 222.4 hryvnia, kapena madola biliyoni 27.8. chiwerengerochi limafanana ndi 38% wa ngongole okwana amene ukutitsimikizira dziko ndi kuti salisiyanitsa biliyoni 585,3 hryvnia, kapena madola biliyoni 73,2. Pofika kumayambiriro kwa 2015, boma liyenera kulipira ndalama za miliyoni 12,7 hryvnia, ndipo amayenda yekha ngongole kunja. Mogwirizana ndi boma bajeti, amene ali chokha wolemba Yatseniuk adzaitana kutali abwino, mu January anayenera kulipira ndalama biliyoni 6.03 hryvnia okha mathandizidwe ngongole. Pa malipiro a yaikulu kuchuluka kwa ngongole nkhani hryvnia 6,67 yekha biliyoni.

Kodi n'chiyani chinachititsa chisangalalo cha akatswiri?

Mtsutso pakati akatswiri ngati kuli kusakhulupirika chikuchitika mu Ukraine kapena ayi, akhala chifukwa cha kuchepetsa lakuthwa mu buku la golide ndi kuwombola yachilendo nkhokwe ya dziko, ponena kuti msonkhano ngongole kunja. Mukhoza kulankhula za kuchepetsa chuma poyerekeza ndi October pa 20.82% mu November 2014. Ngati timamasulira chithunzi mu mtundu ndalama, adzakhala wopambana madola biliyoni 2,621. Moyipa anachita mawu Moodys bungwe, zomwe amagwiritsa ntchito 4500 akatswiri ochokera m'mayiko 26. Iwo wapanga zilizonse za kusakhulupirika mu Ukraine, ntchito chifukwa chakuti pa zaka zapitazi 10, SMP wafika mbiri otsika.

Kodi boma chiyani?

Ngakhale kuti Mwina kusakhulupirika mu dziko amaonedwa ndi akatswiri ambiri ndi digiri yapamwamba ya Mwina, boma lili chikutanthauza zikhulupiriro zawo. Mutu wa Bank National wa dziko Gontareva limanena kuti zinthu lolamulidwa ndi zotsatira za mtengo overruns - Ndi kuyesa kukhala mlingo kuwombola 8 hryvnia kwa dola imodzi ndi thandizo la nkhondo asilikali a kum'mawa kwa dziko. Atalephera zoyesayesa angapo utsi nkhondo yomwe inatha mu kulephera, mbatoma kuvumba chofunika Chiyukireniya eurobonds. Ngakhale mothamanga-mmwamba anatengera December 29, 2014 bajeti ndi zinthu zenizeni, chimene ndi kuchepekedwa bajeti anakwana biliyoni 63.67 hryvnia, boma kumayambiriro a chaka chino kunena mwakhama kuti ndalama zonse akusowa. Komabe, mfundo imodzi yokha ndiyo kusowa ndalama kwa utumiki ngongole kale akulankhula za vuto m'ziwawa ndalama. Kulimbana ndi kukhazikitsa maudindo pansi ngongole adzakhala zotheka ndi kuchirikiza mwachangu angongole kunja.

Kodi kusakhulupirika?

Pofikira ku Ukraine mukhoza kutengedwa ngati chotchinga zoteteza kuti ndi wokhoza kuteteza dziko kwa bankirapuse okwana zachuma. Ndondomeko amapereka limagwirira ndi kuwapangitsa wobwereka kubweza ngongole pa chiwembu wokometsedwa. Mukhoza kulankhula za kukonzanso ngongole, kuphatikizapo malipiro mtsogolo mpaka nthawi imene dziko adzatuluka mavutowo. Ambiri, chodabwitsa ndi zingakuthandizeni kubwezeretsa chuma zoweta boma. Monga mbali ya ongolankhula za nkhani lili munene chimodzi chokha mawu akuti zimayambitsa mantha pa anthu a.

Lomwe zochitika Akatswiri amanena kuti chifukwa cha kusakhulupirika mu Ukraine?

Ngati kusakhulupirika nduna Ukraine adzakhala analengeza, tidzayamba kuoneka milandu ikuluikulu ku oimira boma ndi bizinesi kwa mabanki ndi ndalama kungakupatseni madipoziti, motsogozedwa makampani ku gawo la banki, umene kunyenga zinthu. Malinga ndi akatswiri, kumaonjezera chiwerengero cha litigation pakati pa zipani monga chotsatira cha kuchepetsa amakhoma misonkho moona mtima dziko. Zotsatira za kusakhulupirika mu Ukraine zovuta amati, kuyambira mavuto gawo la banki, boma adzakhala amalowerera chizindikiro chake pa nthambi iliyonse ya ntchito ndi chitukuko cha dziko.

Outflows yekha complicates zinthu

Basil Yurchishin, amene anali katswiri pa macroeconomics, ananena kuti zinthu pa dziko Agwedeza outflows mokwanira lalikulu. Chinthu choyamba chimene Mtsikana wotere kuchokera ndalama zakunja - nkhondo asilikali kummawa. Mukhoza kulankhula za mavoti m'malo otsika a dziko pa mlingo lonse. Kafukufuku State Committee inanena kuti nthawi kuchokera January kuti September mu chuma cha boma anali padera 1.8 okha biliyoni hryvnia. Zinali nthawi imeneyi ndi kuchepa kukula kwa ndalama zakunja mwachindunji ndi 14,9%. Izi mwachindunji zokhudzana ndi devaluation a hryvnia, ndipo , malinga ndi kafukufuku boma operekedwa ndi Bank National wa dziko anakwana 58,9%. Boma akutsimikiziranso anthu kuti dziko si popanda thandizo ku America, China ndi EU, ndi tranches okhoza kuthetsa mavuto onse a boma. Ngakhale, pafupifupi palibe amene anganene kuti Ukraine ali pafupi ofikira. Zachikondi anayikidwa pa luso kuzilambalala chodabwitsa chifukwa cha thandizo amphamvu a mayiko okondedwa.

Ukraine n'chiyani chidzachitikire m'tsogolo?

Akatswiri kufufuza nkhani yoti padzakhala ofikira ku Ukraine, amavutika yankho okhazikika. zochitika zina kudzadalira basi pa chisankho cha mayiko ku mbali ya mosamala. Ngati chodabwitsa kudzachitika, ngakhale dziko adzakhala ndi mwayi kupyolera konzanso yaitali kukonzanso kulowa siteji dziko, koma nawo mavuto ena. Kuphunzira funso tanthauzo Ukraine kwa kusakhulupirika, tikhoza kulankhula za kugwa kwa masanjidwe mayiko, choncho outflow chachikulu likulu Investor mosalephera. M'mayiko World kusiya kupereka ngongole ndalama lidzakhala lilipo yekha pa ziwawa chidwi ndi makonzedwe a ina. Kugwa kwa mlingo kuwombola, dontho mu imports, kuchepetsa ndalama yeniyeni ya anthu, kukwera ulova - izi ndi monga yakuti, kodi lekani Akatswiri amanena. kungasokoneze adzakhala ziletso pa gawo banki, makamaka kuchitika pa kutsekedwa kwa mabungwe ambiri chuma, nkhani kasitomala alipo, kuchulukitsa kwa ndondomeko ya crediting weniweni Boma la chuma. Pali kuthekera kuti ena mwa gombe, ndipo sheya msika ophunzira kuchotsedwa maudindo onse, kutsatira chitsanzo cha boma. Kutuluka ulova mosalephera. Akatswiri, mwabwinobwino potaya zinthu anati pamaso pa uthunthu wonse wa zochitika, pamlingo waukulu ndiponso wochepekedwa m'kukoma chuma lero.