Zingati mafuta Russia amagulitsa mu chaka? Zingati mafuta ndi gasi chaka amagulitsa Russia?

Ku Russia ndi amagulitsa yaikulu ya gasi. Ilo liri ndi nkhokwe wachiwiri kukula wa malasha. Makina ali kunadetsa akhala zokambirana zoti Russia kalekale mphamvu "Trainspotting." Kotero tsopano ngakhale wowerengeka zonse achita chidwi ndi mmene mafuta Russia amagulitsa pachaka. RF pachikhalidwe chitatu m'dziko mawu a zitsime zamafuta, koma voliyumu ya ulimi kuposa dziko lililonse padziko lapansi. M'nkhaniyi tiona kuyesetsa kumvetsa mmene kugwa lakuthwa mu mitengo "golide wakuda" zakhudza chuma dziko. Tikambirananso makampani a Russian Federation of katundu, ikani chimasanduka mu dongosolo zake, Zoneneratu wa akatswiri pa zikutha m'mayiko zachilengedwe, makamaka mfundo mphamvu boma.

Zingati mafuta Russia amagulitsa mu chaka

Monga wa December 2015, ku Russia umabala avareji migolo miliyoni 10.83. Ichi ndi 12% kupanga dziko. Pankhaniyi, boma m'matangadza pamalo chitatu. Zogulitsa kunja mafuta Russian yosakongola - yemweyo 12%. Mu 2015, atha matani mamiliyoni 396. Musamachite mtengo msika amamasulidwa pa $ 30 pa mbiya. Ife kuganizira mmene mafuta Russia amagulitsa pachaka. Ife tifika kukula kwa ndalama ndi katundu. Izi biliyoni 87, 30 mukhoza kupeza pa mpweya.

malonda okhonda

Pafupifupi pakati pa 1997 ndi 2015, chiwerengero cha zogulitsa kunja ndipo imports anali Russia biliyoni 9,11295 madola US. Mbiri mkulu anali mu January 2012, otsika - mu February 1998. Ngati ife kulankhula za mafuta mochuluka bwanji ndi mpweya chaka kugulitsa Russia, yankho adzakhala - 58% ya wolowa okwana. An item zofunika alinso katundu wa matabwa. Kuti amagulitsa Russian, kupatula nkhuni, mafuta ndi mafuta? wolowa zina monga zitsulo (faifi tambala, chitsulo), mankhwala, makina ndi zida za nkhondo. Anthu ndi mabungwe waukulu malonda ndi Russia, China, Germany ndi Italy.

Kodi zaka zambiri adzakhala nkhokwe mafuta okwanira

Luso la zopangapanga ndi patsogolo pa kuchuluka mphamvu zambiri, koma ngati munthu wamba amaona kuti zinthu sizili wopandamalire? Pa kumadzulo USSR m'masukulu Soviet, aphunzitsi anauzidwa kuti malasha wakuda lidzakhalapo kwa zaka 150, zofiirira - 650, mafuta - 200, golide - 100 ndi diamondi - pa 80. Komabe, mwa 2000s oyambirira zinaonekeratu kuti kumwa zachilengedwe kwambiri kuchuluka. Anthu ayenera 1.5 nthawi kuposa kuthekera kwa resumption chuma dziko. Pa nthawi yomweyo anthu a m'mayiko olemera amagwiritsa ntchito kwambiri kuposa mayiko osauka. Ngakhale kuti ulamuliro yamasika 2/3 la zitsime zamafuta dziko. Russia pa chizindikiro ichi ndi pa malo 8. Pa mlingo panopa kupanga latsopano la Russia adzakhala kwa zaka 21, ku dziko - zaka 50. Pankhani nkhokwe mpweya, pali Russian mu malo oyamba. Pa mlingo panopa kupanga izo mpaka zaka 80 Russia, 60 - mu dziko.

Chifukwa mtengo mafuta?

Zikuoneka, malinga Zoneneratu Katswiri, ndi nkhokwe "golide wakuda" zaka 50 okha ndi okwanira mu dziko. Ndi osakwana zaka, koma chifukwa, ndiye, msika unakhazikitsidwa ngati mtengo otsika? Malinga ndi zachuma mkulu wa NEF James Medway, imeneyi pali zifukwa cholinga ndithu. Ndipo mkulu mwa iwo - otchedwa shale zisinthe. Wapadera wa mafuta yatsopano ndi kuti poyamba sanali zocheza ndi maboma, kotero iwo anatenga makampani payekha. Global overproduction mafuta amachokera chakuti lalikulu mabungwe zoweta Kodi kuganizira zikamera wa osewera atsopano pa mkokomo, omwe zofuna zawo. Pambuyo waukulu banki ndalama September 2015 Goldman Sachs, akhala lofalitsidwa Mapa ake kuti "golide wakuda" Mwina pita madola 20 pa mbiya, chisamaliro lolunjika pa Chitaganya cha Russia. Zinaoneka kuti dziko lonse akuyesera kuwerengera ndalama zingati Russia wotaya chifukwa kugwa mitengo mafuta. Komabe, tsoka sizinachitikebe. bajeti zidayika mtengo wa $ 50 mu 2016 pa mbiya weniweni ife 30. yekha Popeza buku la wolowa pa tsiku la Russia sakukhulupiriranso pafupifupi mamiliyoni 200 US ndalama.

Ndi angati anaphonya Russia?

ofufuza Financial anaunikanso mkhalidwe mbiri zotchipa mafuta ndi ziletso pa za chuma, apeza kuti Russian Federation kuti kuchokera mu 2014 mpaka 2017 adzataya za $ 600 biliyoni. Pa nthawi yomweyo iwo amaipidwa mu kuphunzira mtengo wa $ 50 pa mbiya. Komanso adzakhala akudziwa nokha ndi imfa ya ndalama zakunja mwachindunji. Malinga ndi iwo, okhala ndi kudikira kuzungulira ina ukuwonjezeka mtengo ndi kulumpha mu dola.

Nthawiyi, m'dzikoli

Anthu oposa theka la ndalama analandira kwa mafuta Russian. Komabe, zambiri sadaloleza ku Russia, ndi kuiwaliratu makampani a USA. Malinga ndi akatswiri, ndi yosafuna pa mtengo wa madola 70-77 pa mbiya. Komabe, pakati pa zaka za m'ma 21, akatswiri kuyembekezera kuchepa lakuthwa mu muyezo mphamvu. The ogula chachikulu cha mafuta akhoza kukhala dziko lachitatu dziko, amene sitili nawo nthawi kusinthana kwa umisiri zina. Choncho, 21 "golide wakuda" mwapadera mokwanira, ndi mtengo wake chilungamo adzakhala kwanthawi pa mlingo wa madola 70-100

Policy Energy Russia

Pakuti nthawi mpaka kumapeto a 2020 mu Russian Federation zikugwira ntchito njira, amene analowa mphamvu mu 2003. Iyo imakhala zinthu izi pa dziko:

• Kukakhale chitukuko.
• Kuwonjezeka mphamvu Mwachangu.
• Kuchepetsa kungasokoneze chilengedwe.
• Mphamvu ndiponso zaumisiri.
• Ntchito pa dzuwa ndi mwayi mpikisano.

Mu July 2008, pulezidenti wa ku Russia zinasaina malamulo malinga ndi zomwe boma akhoza kufinya mafuta ndi gasi pa alumali chokhala opanda wachifundo ndi. Izi zinapatsa mkwiyo wa kuwatsutsa. Mu February 2011, Russia anasaina mgwirizano ndi China, umene, chosinthana $ biliyoni 25 ngongole izo adzapulumutsa mabuku yaikulu ya mafuta mu zaka 20.

makampani Mavuto

Mafuta ndi gasi ndi 60% Russian Tumizani ndi 30% ya GDP. Pa tsiku la boma limapanga miliyoni 10,6 mbiya. Zingati mafuta Russia amagulitsa mu chaka? Limafotokoza za 12% zosowa dziko. Chuma Russian amadalira kwambiri pa wolowa hydrocarbon. RF amagwiritsanso ntchito malo ake monga katundu mafuta ndi mpweya mu malamulo ake akunja. The EU akugwira ntchito kuchepetsa mphamvu kudalira ake pa Russia. Kuyambira cha m'ma 2000s, mu Russian Federation ndi Ukraine akhala mikangano zingapo zimene kotunga mpweya ku Europe inaima. Komanso, kumanga unatha ndi Nabucco payipi. Pakali pano, ku EU komabe alibe kugonjetsa mphamvu kudalira ake. Koma mtengo chilungamo mafuta, akatswiri sizinathe anafika kugwirizana pa nkhani imeneyi.