Kodi kuchita ndi rubles? Kodi kuchita ndi ruble lero? Ruble kugwa - zoyenera kuchita?

Mutu wa kugwa kwa ruble mu zaka zaposachedwapa zambiri limatuluka atolankhani. Mabuku ndi osiyana ndi Afilisiti wachisokonezo ( "Kodi kuchita ndi rubles?"), Kuti mokwanira mokwanira ndi mawunikidwe. Nkhaniyi cholinga kupereka buku mwadongosolo pa phunziro, potengera mabuku zikupezeka atolankhani Russian.

The ruble Russian ndi chifukwa strategy

Analytics - zina paradoxical chinthu. Wokonzeka kuyankha funsoli chinthu Russian, tinavutika ndi kuyatsa woyenera zimenezo, motulutsa mkamwa ... katswiri Western Chris Weafer. Mu maganizo ake, kupanda kusintha kandalama chuma Russian ali okhwima ndi anatengedwa mawonekedwe mlingo umene 2014 ayenera kugwiritsa iwo zoopsa: mwina zidzachitike pa nthawi ino, kapena sizinkachitika konse (cha ganizo: mu 2016 - aphungu chisankho mu 2018 - pulezidenti).

Pa nthawi yomweyo, monga asayansi amati, tisaiwale kuti kusintha chingandithandize yekha mu zaka 2-3.

Ndi anasintha kuchokera injini chakale kukula zachuma - yaikulu gwero ofotokoza chuma - injini wachibadidwe latsopano kukula zachuma. Chimodzi mwa zida za reorientation ichi ndi ruble. Ndichite chiyani nazo izo? funsoli mayankho awiri zina.

1. Kukhala olimbikitsa neoliberalism (monga umaimiridwa ndi Bank ku Central, mautumiki, oligarchy) yafupika kusintha yaitali moyenera, - za kukhazikitsidwa kwa ruble mu "ufulu akuyandama".

2. osafuna kusintha zinkayimira mphamvu chitetezo, bureaucracy, nkhawa boma, amakonda kwambiri ziletsa kusintha.

Uthenga chifungulo cha chiyambi cha kusintha anazindikira ndi anthu ndipo ena kuti wangokhala pa yowopsa kuposa mkuntho. Kuti akonze Russian chuma ndalama zofunika zinthu ziwiri: kukwera mtengo kwa mafuta ndi ruble wotchipa. Kotero, ine anapatsidwa lamulo lakuti: "Forward"

Kukulozani PAD Russian chuma

Ndithudi, zinthu zazikulu za citukuko wa dziko kunaganiziridwa pachiyambi. Development wa chuma chinathandiza kukhazikika khumi chaka ruble lapansi. Russia ndi katundu msika chosangalatsa kwa ndalama payekha. Analemera ndi chidwi padziko lonse nkhokwe - $ mabiliyoni 500.

Russian ruble m'tsogolo akuyembekezera ntchito integrative - ndalama yamtundu umodzi onse m'mayiko a Soviet Customs.

Bank chapakati mfundo ruble

The uthenga waukulu wa zokambirana zathu akhale malamulo a Bank ku Central - boma thupi bungwe la aziyenda ndi zokhudza njira ya ndalama dziko ndi zina. Mutu wa banki lalikulu la Russia Elvira Nabiullina mobwerezabwereza anafuulira mfundo zikuluzikulu.

Iwo anayang'ana kupyolera mu masomphenya nduna ya utumiki ndalama national Russia monga akuyandama, musati Ufumuyo administratively kufunika dola ndi yuro. Pa funso lakuti: "Kodi kuchita ndi rubles," mutu wa Bank ku Central amayankha kuti motere, pogwiritsa ntchito ndalama zotsika mtengo, kulimbitsa chuma, ndi kuti, nawonso, adzakhala kulimbikitsa ruble.

The watsopano kusinthitsa ndalama malamulo a Bank ku Central

Wachibadidwe maganizo atsopano pa cholinga cha ndalama national anapereka "Malangizo waukulu mfundo ndalama kuchokera 2014 mpaka 2016.". chikalata ichi tayesedwa ndi motsatira Bank of Russia mfundo ku kutsata ndi ruble kusinthitsa ndalama kwa kufufuma kutsata. Iwo anakonza mu 2015 kusinthana kwathunthu limagwirira ndi akuyandama cha lamulo la ndalama dziko. Mwakugwira tatchulawa pulogalamu, mu January 1914 Bank ku Central wasiya kuwombola yachilendo alowererepo kukhalabe kusinthitsa ndalama, motero, ndi ruble kugwa. Kodi ngati zizindikiro chuma cha mayiko yuro m'dera nthawi yomweyo kusonyeza azimuth zabwino? Russia ayenera anakhalabe njira zake.

The view boma: zifukwa sakuyendetsa ruble ndi

kugwa ruble nkhani mutu wa Bank of Russia adzaitana pa mwachikulu kuunikira: si ruble unagwa, ndipo analimbitsa dollar ndi yuro. Monga mukudziwa, chiyambi cha ndondomekoyi anaika kugula kuchepetsa katundu wa Federal Reserve System ya United States malinga ndi ganizo la "easing kachulukidwe" - mpaka madola biliyoni 65 mwezi ..

Popeza kuti mapeto a 2012 potsiriza anakonza ndi kusokonekera kwa malo chitukuko lonse. The injini waukulu kukula chuma anali United States ndi ku Ulaya. The Russian chuma, komanso ku Asia mu 2013 anasonyeza stagnation zizolowezi. Akali pankhani imeneyi kugwa ndi slowdown la China.

Elvira Nabiullina, ndi chofunika kuti kukula kwa ndalama national anaona zolimbikitsa kwambiri kutukula. Chimanena popezera mpata yokulirapo zachuma kuthetsa vuto: ndi predominance la wolowa Russian pa imports ake. boma laganiza zoti achite ndi rubles, mu mode Buku, mwachikulu potaya zinthu.

Mu yochepa kukuchititsa zimenezi adzaona ndi profitability kukula Waogula Zinthu Kunja kwa zipangizo. Koma pamapeto akuti ruble ayenera "kutsamira" pa ntchito zachuma za ena, Boma sanali yoyamba ya chuma Russian.

Malinga ndi osunga ndalama Russian (Anton Mukhin, finsovetnik Irkutsk nthambi ya BCS Premier Irkutsk) kuthamanga opaleshoni ruble ndi zongopeka. kukula mu nthawi yayitali ayenera zimathandiza kuti osangalala kuti katundu wa mafuta ndi "nkhokwe kuti Papayu" a Bank wa Central. Banki kuti: m'chigawo cha njira ndalama envisaged monga gawo ena kuti ruble anagwa. Kodi kuchita - ife tiwona pa masitepe wotsatira wa Bank wa Central.

The depreciation zosakhalitsa maphunziro anatsimikizira imachitika ofufuza banki America_Merrill_Lynch amene mawerengeredwe zazikulu za citukuko anatsimikiza kuti wachiwiri ndi wachinayi kotala ya chaka chino, Russian mafuta mtengo adzauka.

The ruble ndi osewera a msika Russian

Pa nthawi yomweyo, mutu wa Bank ku Central amauza osewera onse msika Russian pamodzi ndi comprehensively chintchito vuto cha kugwa kwa ruble lapansi. Anakumbukira kuti banki chapakati - si nkhani chabe mu msika kuwombola yachilendo. Ntchito yake - oyenerera kuwunika ndi kuthana ndi kusinthasintha yochepa ya ndalama ya dziko, potero kukhalabe zinthu khola bizinesi.

Masiku yaitali kuchepa mu mtengo wake, malinga ndi Elvira Nabiullina, amagwirizana ndi amadza structural pa apindulitsa za malonda zipangizo chuma. Kuti ndi yankho ku vuto nthawi :. "Kodi kuchita ndi ruble" amagwirizana ndi kwakukulu structural kuyambiransoko za chuma lonse zovuta za.

Za njira ntchito ndi mabanja ndi ruble kugwa

N'zoonekeratu kuti ruble ofooka ndi chokhethemulira kwambiri kwa dziko apindulitsa za malonda, cholinga chake - kuthandiza sewerolo ake. Amatero Evgeny Bolotin, wapampando wa Urals Bank Union. Iye akukhulupirira kuti kusankha njira zina (zopanda / n'zopanda) lodziwikiratu: kufunika kukula kwa makampani ndi misonkho, m'munsili onse olamulidwa kugwa kwa ruble lapansi. Kodi ngati pa nthawi yomweyo kukhala imports zodula? Sinthanitsani kupanga ake Russian.

Tsopano udindo wa amalonda mu sheya msika. Pa dzanja limodzi, malinga ndi Radik Akhmetshin, Director of Stock Market Association Urals mabizinesi kupeza mwayi kuyala maziko a kukula mtsogolo ndi kugula magawo pa kugwa mitengo. Ndithudi, njira ya tsogolo lawo ndithu kukula. Posachedwapa, amanena kuti ndi Russian Minister Finance Anton Siluanov. Komabe, Russia ndi chuma kutsogolera kuyembekezera ndi devaluation mpaka kalekale ndalama dziko mu 2014 mpaka 20%.

Komano, kugwa ruble kukakamiza malonda akhalire wa Russia, zoona - mawu chabe. Koma zoona zake n'zakuti, chifukwa ambiri a osewera ake - sanali anthu, mitengo katundu kugwa nkhani, ndalama zakunja anakakamizika "pitiliza".

Ruble kugwa - zoyenera kuchita? 2014, zenizeni

Kodi anthu Russian mu kugwa kwa ruble chiyani? Funso limeneli amaphunzira Vladimir Zotov (Directorate wa chipsyepsye / mabungwe ndi ndalama ku banki ya Ural). Malinga ndi banki ya zikuonetseratu kuchuluka kufunika kwa ndalama, nthawi yomweyo anatenga mbali yaing'ono ya gawo lapansi. Against maziko awa, pali chizolowezi si kusamutsa wa madipoziti ruble ndalama kapena evrovye. Monga fanizo pamwambapa, iye anafuulira kwa ziwerengero zotsatirazi: ngati Russian ruble miyala ya anthu ndi za zankhaninkhani, 16,3. rubles, ndalama, lotembenuzidwa pa mlingo nzeru Bank ku Central mu rubles, -. 3.3 okha thililiyoni. pakani., kapena 20%.

Komabe, ku Russia aona ndipo anapulumuka zoposa mavuto, komabe kudzifunsa kuti; "The ruble kugwa - zoyenera kuchita?" Yankho ndi chikhalidwe: tiyenera kusiyanitsa ndalama zawo. M'pomveka Mwachitsanzo, njira zotsatirazi: hafu ya ndalama kuvala gawo ruble, mmodzi wa kumpanda otsala - mu gawo dollar, ndi otsala - mu evrovy.

Udindo wa nzika pafupifupi

Gwirizanani, kale masiku ano zopusa "mavuto" muno zonse Mota kunja kuti agwire tanthauzo kugula chomwecho, chimene iwo akanakhoza kuchita mu Russia, koma pa mitengo yabwino. Iwo, inu mukudziwa, anagwa kugula mphamvu pamene akatembenuka rubles.

Nzika zambiri mkhalidwe wathu, mosiyana woyamba, kupanda khushoni chitetezo ndalama. Pakuti iwo zogwirizana ndi wina vuto - chochita ndi ruble lero? Mfundo ndalama wokwanira 30 chikwi. Opaka. mukhoza kusunga ndalama kunyumba.

Tsopano tiyeni tione zinthu kumene ndalama zilipo kwa nzika ulipo. Kudzachotsa madipoziti awo ruble ku banki sayenera. Mu mawu a pangano gawo, kutsiriziratu kutsogolo kwa nthawi, kasitomala banki samalipidwa chidwi. Izi kokha kuonjezera ndi manja awo kupweteketsa zawo.

Ngati inu nthawizonse ankafuna kugula galimoto kunja kwa inu ndi funso lofunika kwambiri: "Kodi kuchita ndi ruble lero" Yankho la funso limeneli ndi mwachidule: "Ugule!" Inde, kugwa winanso wa ndalama lidzapambana kudziwa adzauka pa mtengo wa maloto anu.

Analimbikitsa - analimbikitsa osati

Ngati inu kulemba katswiri malangizo kwa mbadwa, kusonyeza kuposa kulenga okha malire a chitetezo kugwa kwa ndalama ya dziko, ndiye onse kuchepetsedwa awiri zinthu lophweka.

Woyamba ali osavomerezeka aganyali ndalama illiquid. Mwachitsanzo, ndalama za malo n'chotheka pa intervals lalikulu la nthawi. Komanso, ndi kufufuma, mfundo, ndi osavomerezeka kugulitsa chuma. Mavuto, mphamvu ya ndalama ukusowa maloprognozirovana.

Ndipo komabe, kodi kuchita ndi devaluation wa ruble chiyani? Udindo wachiwiri limasonyeza kuti analimbikitsa dera ndalama ndalama za anthu ena zimafunikanso madzi: madipoziti banki, zitsulo zamtengo wapatali, PIF-m ndi makampani ndalama.

Ndipo kodi popanda kale miyambo zaka zakubadwa malangizo wokalamba: Nzika adzaphunzira kuwapulumutsa kulepheletsa chakhumi mwezi wa ndalama zawo kwa tsiku mvula!

Ena mwa mavuto a ruble kugwa

Anecdotally, onani "bedstvovaniya pa kamera" makampani Russian mafuta, kulira loudest: "Thandizeni! Kugwa ruble ndi! Kodi kuchita? !! "Pambuyo pang'ono kuphunzira zachuma anthu odziwa chakuti ndi mtengo kuchuluka kwa mafuta ndi dola kugwa" yaiwisi-zipangizo "amagwa nirvana, chifukwa ndalama zawo kuchita masamu mu ndalama zakunja, ndi mtengo (mu Vol. H. Ndipo misonkho ) - mu rubles. Kupita kutembenukanso: kugwa kwa ruble ndiye ndalama oligarchs.

Pakati neproigravshih ndithu "Surgutneftegaz" - kapangidwe kwambiri malonda, omwe ali ndi chidwi leni udindo ndalama . $ 30 biliyoni Dziwani kuti phindu, koma ang'onoang'ono, yemweyo "Lukoil" ndi "Rosneft". Iwo sadzatha kuti azipeza phindu lalikulu chifukwa chokhala yochepa ndalama zakunja payables (ndalama kwa alipire ake adzakhala ndi kugula pa mlingo kufufuma). A amagulitsa atongi wa "Gazprom" N'kutheka kuti wapamwamba-phindu ku "zandale" kuchuluka tariffs.

Mkulu wa bungwe mawunikidwe "Alpari" Alexander Razuvaev limaneneratu kuti chifukwa cha ichi pano tariff foloko pakati pa mtengo wa mafuta (mpweya) ndi msonkho rubles ndalama yaikulu ya mafuta ndi gasi zovuta adzakhala biliyoni 862. Pakani. ndalama zina biliyoni 682. opaka. Mwachidule, pamene ruble devalued, zoyenera kuchita, mukudziwa mafuta abwino.

Pomaliza

Choncho, ruble ofooka - si kwambiri chizindikiro cha vutoli, ngati zenizeni chida ndalama zachitukuko. Imalimbikitsa mapangidwe ndi ndalama "chitetezo khushoni" chifukwa zofunika kusintha kandalama chuma.

Ndizoonekeratu kuti mkati ndalama chuma Russia mwachindunji anapanga amadalira ngati zidzatheke kutembenukira "kuchotsedwa m'mimba" oligarchs phindu owonjezera kwaiye pa ruble kugwa. Dziko lifunika ndondomeko mafakitale, boma pake, ndalama akulimbana a mabungwe a boma ndi boma, nzeru chitukuko cha makampani nyukiliya, mafuta ndi gasi, makampani chitetezo.