The zachuma: lingaliro, zimayambitsa ndi zotsatira

Chuma cha aliyense, ngakhale maiko ambiri otukuka, si malo amodzi. Chiwerengerochi ake nthawi zonse kusintha. zachuma agonjera ku kuwuka kwa vutoli - mfundo pachimake cha kukula. chitukuko Cyclical yodziwika ndi mtundu msika wa kasamalidwe. Kusintha mlingo wa ntchito ndi mbali yaikulu pa ogula 'mphamvu kugula, imbaenda iwonso kuchepa kapena Kukwera kwa mitengo ya chakudya. Ndipo ichi ndi chitsanzo chimodzi cha zizindikiro ubwenzi. Monga lero, mayiko ambiri ali capitalist, monga mfundo zachuma monga mavuto ndi kuchira, ali oyenera malongosoledwe ndi chitukuko cha chuma dziko.

Mbiri ya kuphunzira m'zinthu zachuma

Ngati pamapindikira ya GDP m'dziko lililonse, tikuona kuti kukula kwa chizindikiro ichi si nthawi zonse. Lililonse mkombero zachuma imakhala nthawi ya kugwa kupanga chikhalidwe ndi kuchira. Komabe, nthawi yake si zodziwika bwino. Kusinthasintha mu bizinesi ndi bwino m'tsogolo ndi osasamba. Komabe, pali mfundo zingapo kuti kumufotokozera cyclical chitukuko zachuma ndi nthawi njira imeneyi. Woyamba mavuto nthawi anaona Jean Sismondi. "Classics" anakana zakuti kuli m'zinthu. Iwo amaganizira ndi nthawi ya zachuma ndi zinthu zina, monga nkhondo. Sismondi komanso anafotokoza otchedwa "mantha mu 1825", woyamba mavuto mayiko kumene kunachitika mu yamtendere. Kubwera kuganiza mofanana, ndi Robert Owen. Iye anakhulupirira kuti mavuto chifukwa overproduction ndi underconsumption chifukwa lochitira mu yogawa ndalama. Owen kulimbikitsa alowererepo boma ndi njira zokomera a ulimi. Zodziwitsa mavuto khalidwe la bizinesi, anakhala maziko a ntchito Karla Marksa, amene anaitana ulimi chikominisi.

Ulova, mavuto ndi udindo wa boma pothetsa nkhani zimenezi ndi nkhani ya Dzhona Meynarda Keynes ndi otsatira ake. Ndi sukulu iyi zachuma systematized lingaliro la mavuto ndi kupereka njira yoyamba zogwirizana kuchotsa zotsatira zawo chowawa. Keynes ngakhale anawayesa iwo amachita mu United States pa Wamkulu chuma cha 1930-1933 a.

gawo lalikulu

Kayendedwe ka zachuma kugawidwa m'mbali zinayi. Pakati pawo:

• kuchira Economic (kuchira). Nthawiyi amakhala ndi kukula kwa zokolola ndiponso ntchito. Mlingo kufufuma ndi otsika. Ogula wofuna kupanga kugula amene anali kulephereka pa mavutowo. ntchito zonse zamanja msanga kulipira okha.
• Peak. Nthawiyi amakhala ndi ntchito pazipita malonda. Mlingo ulova pa siteji iyi ndi yaing'ono kwambiri. mphamvu kupanga dawunilodi kwambiri. Komabe, amayamba kudziwonetsa zoyipa: kufufuma ndi mpikisano patsogolo, kuchuluka nthawi payback.
• The zachuma (mavuto, pamene mavuto). Nthawiyi amakhala ndi kuchepa mu bizinesi. Kugwa linanena bungwe ndi ndalama, ndi kusowa ntchito likutuluka. Depression amatchedwa kwambiri ndiponso kwa nthawi yaitali mavuto.
• Pansi. Nthawiyi amakhala ndi osachepera bizinesi. Pa nthawi imeneyi, pali mtengo ulova wotsikitsitsa ndi kupanga. Nthawi imeneyi anakhala ndi chuma chambiri katundu, lomwe linakhazikitsidwa pa nsonga ya bizinesi. Capital ku dera la malonda akuyenda ku mabanki. Zimenezi zimabweretsa kuchepa chiwongoladzanja pa ngongole. Childs, imeneyi si yaitali. Komabe, pali kuchotserapo. Mwachitsanzo, "Great Depression" kwa zaka khumi.

Choncho mkombero zachuma ndizodabwitsa monga nthawi ya pakati pa mayiko awiri a malonda yemweyo. Muyenera kumvetsetsa kuti ngakhale chikhalidwe cyclical pamapeto pake GDP amamuchititsa adzauka. Zikhulupiriro amenewa zachuma monga mavuto, maganizo ndi mavuto sadzakhala kutha, koma nthawi iliyonse mfundo ndi apamwamba.

katundu m'zinthu

Akuti kusinthasintha zachuma amasiyana onse mu chikhalidwe ndi mu nthawi. Komabe, zina wamba tingaone iwo. Pakati pawo:

• Cyclicity ndi khalidwe la mayiko onse ndi mtundu msika wa kasamalidwe.
• Akayambana ndi zimayamba zofunika chodabwitsa. Zimachititsa chuma, kukakamiza kupita ku misinkhu yonse yaikulu ya chitukuko.
• Lililonse mkombero tichipeza magawo anayi.
• Cyclicity chifukwa si munthu, koma pa zifukwa zosiyanasiyana osiyana.
• Chifukwa cha kudalirana pa yadziko m'dziko lina n'kogwiritsa Zimakhudzanso mmene chuma chikuyendera pa ena.

gulu la nthawi

Chuma masiku ano amathera kuposa zikwi m'zinthu zosiyanasiyana malonda. Pakati pawo:

• m'zinthu yochepa Dzhozefa Kitchina. Iwo lolimba za 2-4 zaka. Chikutchedwa wasayansi amene anatulukira iwo. Kupezeka kwa m'zinthu izi Kitchin poyamba anafotokoza ndi kusintha kwa nkhokwe za golide. Komabe, tsiku akukhulupirira kuti iwo amayamba ndi kuchedwa kupeza Makampani zokuthandizani kupanga njira zambiri malonda. Mwachitsanzo, taganizirani machulukitsidwe wa msika chofunika. Imeneyi, anthu opanga ndi kuchepetsa mabuku kupanga. Komabe, nkhani za machulukitsidwe wa msika samabwera yomweyo, koma ndi kuchedwa ndi. Zimenezi zimabweretsa mavuto chifukwa cha maonekedwe a katundu zotsala.
• Sing'anga-Clement Juglar m'zinthu. Iwo anali dzina lake polemekeza zachuma amene anapeza iwo. moyo wawo chifukwa cha kuchedwa pakati pa kukhazikitsidwa kwa zochita pa kuchuluka kwa ndalama ku likulu atathana ndi tinalengedwa ndi ubongo. Nthawi Juglar mkombero ndi za 7-10 zaka.
• Kaimbidwe ya Simoni Kuznets. Iwo ali ndi mayina wopambana Nobel Prize amene anapeza iwo mu 1930. Asayansi kufotokoza moyo wawo zaziwerengero njira ndi kusinthasintha mu zomangamanga. Komabe, chuma zamakono zomwe amakhulupirira waukulu chifukwa Kuznets kugwedezeka Mokweza umisiri. Nthawi - za 15-20 zaka.
• Long mafunde Nikolaya Kondrateva. Iwo anali otseguka kwa asayansi, amene ulemu ndi dzina lake mu 1920s ndi. Nthawi - za 40-60 zaka. Kupezeka kwa K-mafunde chifukwa atulukira zofunika ndi kusintha okhudzidwa mu kapangidwe ka kupanga anthu.
• m'zinthu Forrester zaka 200 mpaka kalekale. moyo wawo chifukwa cha kusintha kwa zipangizo ndi mphamvu.
• Toffler m'zinthu mpaka kalekale zaka 1000-2000. moyo wawo chifukwa cha kusintha lofunika kwambiri chitukuko cha chitukuko.

zifukwa

The zachuma - ndi mbali yofunika ya vuto la zachuma. Cyclicity chifukwa zinthu zotsatirazi:

• Kunja ndi mkati zodabwitsa. Nthawi zina amatchedwa zikhumbo kuti chuma. Izi anatulukira njira zamakono kuti akhoza kusintha chikhalidwe cha ulimi, anapeza chuma watsopano mphamvu, nkhondo ndi nkhondo.
• Yosakonzekera kuwonjezeka ndalama ku chuma atathana ndi inventories ya katundu ndi zipangizo, mwachitsanzo, mogwirizana ndi kusintha malamulo.
• Kusintha mitengo ya zinthu za ulimi.
• Nyengo chikhalidwe cha zokolola ulimi.
• The kukula chikoka zilumikizano za malonda ndipo malipiro Choncho apamwamba, ndi kuwonjezeka mu ukutitsimikizira ntchito.

Kutha kwa kukula zachuma: lingaliro ndi zomwenso

Mwa akatswiri a masiku ano komabe palibe kugwirizana kuti pakhale mavuto. Mu mabuku Soviet kuyambira Soviet Union chogwidwa maganizo kuti mavuto azachuma zikusonyeza yekha m'mayiko capitalist, ndi pansi mtundu zokomera oyang'anira zitha kukhala "kukula ululu." Pakali pano, pali mtsutso pakati chuma ngati mavuto pa khalidwe yaying'ono mlingo. Mfundo yaikulu ya mavuto azachuma akuwonekera owonjezera okwanira poyerekeza kufunika akaphatikiza. kuchepa aona mu KUSOWA misa, kukwera ulova ndi kucheperachepera kugula mphamvu. Crisis ndi kuphwanya dongosolo bwino. Choncho, limodzi ndi zingapo zodabwitsa umoyo ndi zachuma. Ndipo kuthana awo Pakufunika kwenikweni mkati ndi kunja kusintha.

ntchito mavuto

The sichikuyenda a kuzungulira chuma mwapang'onopang'ono chikhalidwe. Iwo amachita ntchito zotsatirazi:

• Kuthetsa kapena Mkhalidwe kusintha mbali lotha a dongosolo alipo.
• Ovomerezeka poyamba ofooka latsopano zinthu.
• dongosolo mayeso mphamvu.

mphamvu

Pa chitukuko, mavuto ali kudutsa magawo angapo:

• Zobisika. Pa nthawi imeneyi, koma preconditions ndi kukhwima, iwo sanali umayamba.
• Iye n'kugwa nthawi. Pa nthawi imeneyi, zotsutsana kupeza mphamvu, ndi akale ndi atsopano mbali ya dongosolo kulowa atasemphana.
• Nthawi kuchepetsa vutoli. Pa nthawi imeneyi, dongosolo amakhala wolimba, ndi prerequisites kwa chitsitsimutso mu chuma.

The zachuma ndi mavuto ake

mavuto onse zimakhudza maubale. Pa mavuto a mabungwe a boma akukhala kwambiri mpikisano kuposa malonda, mu msika ntchito. mabungwe ambiri akukhala zambiri zakuba, zimene zina pofuna kukwaniritsa zolinga zinthu. Komanso kuchuluka kutchuka usilikali chifukwa chakuti achinyamata kukhala kovuta kupeza okha munthu wamba. Ndipo ambiri a anthu achipembedzo. Kutchuka kwa mipiringidzo, malo odyera ndi omwera mavuto ukugwa. Komabe, wotchipa mowa anthu kuyambira kugula zambiri. Crisis ali kungasokoneze zosangalatsa chikhalidwe, chifukwa kuchepa lakuthwa mu mphamvu kugula.

Njira yogonjetsera recessions

Ntchito yaikulu ya boma ya mavuto ndi kuthetsa alipo magulu ndi zachuma, ndi kuthandiza zigawo pachiopsezo cha anthu. Keynesians mtima wa yogwira alowererepo pa chuma. Iwo amakhulupirira kuti ntchito zachuma angabwezeretsedwe ndi malamulo boma. Monetarists mtima wa njira zambiri msika ofotokoza. Iwo zonse yobweretsa ndalama. Komabe, tiyenera kuzindikira kuti onsewa ndi zoyezera zosakhalitsa. Ngakhale kuti mavuto ndi mbali yofunika aliyense kampani ndi boma wonse ayenera kukhala pulogalamu yaitali.