Chiyembekezo cha masamu ndi malonda pa kusinthana

Kawirikawiri ndalama za casino nthawi zonse zimakhala zofanana ndi phindu lokhazikika pa Wall Street. Anthu anzeru akhala akudziŵa kuti munthu sangagwiritse ntchito mwayi wake nthawi zonse ndipo anayamba kugwiritsa ntchito njira zowerengera kuti akhale ndi phindu la kupeza phindu lawo.

Kasino imalandira ndalama zambiri, chifukwa "mwayi" kapena, mwa kuyankhula kwina, kuyembekezera masamu pamasewera, ndi mbali ya njuga. Ndipo mosasamala za masewera ati omwe angayambe nawo mbali, posakhalitsa zotsatira zapasino. Phindu la casino likukula ngakhale mofulumira ngati masewera osiyanasiyana akuphatikizapo zomwe zimathera nthawi yofulumira - makasitomala, makiti kapena makadi ochepa.

Ndikuganiza kuti wogulitsa aliyense ayenera kuthetsa ntchito zitatu zofunika kwambiri kuti apambane mu ntchito yake:

1. Kuonetsetsa kuti chiwerengero cha zopindulitsa bwino chikuposa zolakwa zosapeŵeka komanso zolakwika.

2. Konzani njira yanu yamalonda kuti phindu lanu lipeze nthawi zambiri.

3. Kuti akwaniritse zotsatira zabwino za ntchito zawo.

Ndipo pano ife, ogulitsa ogwira ntchito, chithandizo chabwino chingakhale ndi chiyembekezo cha masamu. Mawu awa mwinamwake lingaliro ndi chimodzi mwa mafungulo. Ndi chithandizo chake, tikhoza kupereka chiwerengero chokhazikika ku mtengo wapadera. Chiyembekezo cha masamu cha kusintha kosasintha ndi ofanana ndi pakati pa mphamvu yokoka ngati wina akuganiza zonse zomwe zingatheke ndi mfundo zosiyana.

Pankhani ya njira yamalonda, kuyembekezera kwa masamu phindu (kapena kutayika) nthawi zambiri kumagwiritsidwa ntchito poyesa mphamvu yake. Izi zimatanthauzidwa ngati chiwerengero cha zinthu zomwe zimaperekedwa phindu la kupindula ndi kuwonongeka komanso mwayi wopezeka. Mwachitsanzo, njira yowonjezera malonda imanena kuti 37 peresenti ya ntchito zonse zidzabweretsa phindu, ndipo gawo lotsala - 63% - silidzakhala lopindulitsa. Panthawi imodzimodziyo, ndalama zambiri kuchokera pamalonda opambana zidzakhala $ 7, ndipo malipiro ambiri adzakhala $ 1.4. Tiyeni tione chiyembekezero cha masamu pamalonda otere:

MO = 0.37 x 7 + (0.63 x (-1.4)) = 2.59 - 0.882 = 1.708

Kodi nambala iyi ikutanthauzanji? Ilo likuti, motsatira malamulo a dongosolo lino, pafupipafupi tidzalandira madola 1,708 pamsonkhano uliwonse watsekedwa.

Popeza kuti mapepalawa ndi othandizira kwambiri kuposa zero, dongosololi lingagwiritsidwe bwino ntchito kwenikweni. Ngati, monga mwa kuwerengera, kuyembekezera kwa masamu kumakhala koipa, ndiye izi zikutanthauza kale kuwonongeka kwapakati ndipo ntchito yoteroyo idzawononge.

Ndalama ya phindu pazochitika zingathe kuwonetsedwanso ngati mtengo wapatali mwa mawonekedwe a%. Mwachitsanzo:

• Peresenti ya ndalama pa 1 ntchito - 5%;
• Peresenti ya ntchito zabwino zogulitsa - 62%;
• Peresenti ya imfa pachithunzi - 3%;
• Chiwerengero cha zosamalidwa zolephera ndi 38%;

Pachifukwa ichi, kuyembekezera masamu ndi (5% x 62% - 3% x 38%) / 100 = (310% - 114%) / 100 = 1.96%. Ndikokutanthauza kuti malonda ambiri adzabweretsa 1.96%.

N'zotheka kukhazikitsa dongosolo lomwe, ngakhale kuchuluka kwa ntchito zopanda phindu, lidzapereka zotsatira zabwino, kuyambira MO> 0.

Komabe, chiyembekezo chimodzi sichikwanira. Zimakhala zovuta kupeza ngati dongosolo limapereka zizindikiro zochepa zogulitsa. Pankhaniyi, zokolola zake zidzafanana ndi chidwi cha banki. Opaleshoni iliyonse iwononge ndalama zokwana madola 0.5 okha, koma bwanji ngati dongosololi likuphatikizapo ntchito 1000 pachaka? Izi zidzakhala malipiro aakulu kwambiri kwa nthawi yochepa. Kuchokera pa izi zikutsatila kuti kulephereka kwina kwa malo ogwira ntchito ndi chinthu china chosiyana cha kayendedwe kabwino ka malonda.

Ngati pali chilakolako chofufuza mosapita m'kati mwa masamu osalongosoka, fufuzani kuti chidziwitso cha masamu, chikhulupiliro ndi zida zina zosangalatsa ndizo, tikulimbikitsani kuwerenga buku la "Statistics kwa ogulitsa" (wolemba S. Bulashev). Ndani amadziwa, mwinamwake, chisokonezo cha kusinthana kwa ndalama pambuyo powerenga bukhulo lidzakuwoneka ngati njira yabwino kwambiri ya dongosolo ...