Chifukwa mtengo mafuta? The odziŵa mitengo mafuta

Mu kugwa kwa 2014, anthu ambiri anayamba kudabwa chifukwa chomwe mafuta mtengo. Kuyambira September 5 mitengo zopangidwa onse a mafuta anayamba chowongolera. atengera akupitiriza lero. Mbiri imasonyeza kuti m'nthawi ya msika mafuta padziko lonse anali prerequisites n'kofunika kuti kukula ndi kuchepa kwa mitengo, kuphatikizapo amene analengedwa chongopeka. Kugwa 2014 si kugwa pansi limodzi la zochitika si mbiri yakale.

Kodi nkhaniyo?

The Zithunzi za mitengo mafuta nthawi mofulumira akusuntha mu njira yomweyo mu mbiri lonse kuli msika. Chimodzi mwa zinthu zochititsa zinachitika chaka isanayambe Gulf nkhondo. Ngakhale malo mtengo wa mafuta madola 18,05 yekha. Pa nthawi ya nkhondoyo, mtengo wa mafuta mtundu "Brent" nditapatsidwa $ 29, ndipo anali pa nthawi pachimake m'mbiri pa US $ 41,5. Choona chidwi ndi tsiku isanayambe maudani, ndipo tsiku lotsatira pambuyo pa mapeto boma la mtengo wamafuta anali ofanana - kuti madola 19,93 pa mbiya. Zinthu ngati zimenezi zinachitika mu nthawi ya utasintha Chisilamu la Iran pa za Iran-Iraq nkhondo, pa mavuto Asian ndalama ndi nthawi ya nkhondo yachiwiri ku Iraq. Mu September 2014 sanalonjeze kugwa kwambiri. Ngati chaka chilichonse, pa maziko a August, mtengo anagwa mu September. Dontho sikunali kwakukulu, kokha 4.5%.

kuloŵa pansi

Kugwa kwa 4.5% anapitiriza October, ndipo funso lokhudza chifukwa lero akupeza mtengo mafuta, ndipo panopa Chinatha. Pamene pakati pa autumn mtengo wa mafuta anali pa msinkhu wa madola 86,4 pa mbiya, akatswiri anayamba kudandaula. Ichi ndi chifukwa chakuti dziko palibe prerequisites zachuma sanali kuti zodabwitsazi. Chuma cha mayiko, ngakhale anali mu kuchepa, koma mavuto zoopsa kapena kuzitcha izo anali mabvuto kwambiri. otsika izi pamene zimakhalanso kwambiri masiku ano mlingo mtengo yomaliza mu 2010 pambuyo 2008 mavuto chaka. media dziko ayamba kupanga mwachangu mawu akuti chifukwa cha vuto mu mpheto US zitsulo msika. Kodi chinachitika zoona, n'zosatheka kunena chimodzimodzi, koma chuma kusiyanitsa zinthu zosiyanasiyana kwambiri kapena zochitika.

shale zokhumba

Ambiri a akatswiri dziko ananena kuti mafuta kugwa pa mtengo chifukwa cha chobisika mtengo weniweni wa chitukuko mafuta shale mu United States. Mtengo wa osauka madipoziti mchere n'chozama kwambiri kuposa zomwe analengeza kwa anthu. Pa msonkhano Geneva, oimira makampani akuluakulu mafuta monga Morgan Stanley, Eagle Ford ndi Barclays PLC. Ananena kuti mitengo ya zinthu shale utsi akhoza zimasiyana 30 60 madola pa mbiya. Izi zikusonyeza kuti mtengo wa 'golide wakuda "mu dziko msika si kofunika. Komanso anapangidwa zolosera kuti October mtengo dontho ayenera kutha. Mwatsoka, mafuta mtengo Mapa sizichitika.

Kupotoza OPEC

Chinthu chachiwiri, zimene zinachititsa kuti nkhawa n'chifukwa chiyani mtengo mafuta - ndi oversupply pa msika. Lalikulu zedi pa msika dziko amapita "golide wakuda" ku Iran. Makontena ku Latin America ndi Africa anayamba kutenga nawo chidwi a msika. posungira Policy mitengo mafuta ndi kuchepetsa kupanga ake buku wakhala m'gulu kukanidwa ndi maiko OPEC. A udindo waukulu mu maonekedwe a mwayi waukulu kuimba ziletso kuti EU kukwezedwa ndi yaikulu aku Iran Pamadzi kampani NITC. The EU Amathandiza Tehran, amenenso ndi imodzi mwa makampani akuluakulu. Mafuta agulidwa pa msika ndi ku opanga US. Kunena zambiri, M'zaka zaposachedwapa ali padera yambiri chuma US mu gawo migodi ya mayiko monga Sudan South, Chad, Equatorial Guinea ndi Mozambique.

The kumaliseche mafuta kumsika US

Akatswiri ambiri akudabwa chifukwa mtengo mafuta, tchulani Yambitsaninso lonse America pa msika mabuku yaikulu ya mafuta. Part wa malo dziko anali allocated zogulitsa chifukwa cha mtengo wotsika chitukuko shale. Pambuyo America wayambira ndi kugulitsa ngati la Canada, amene anayamba kumenyana chifukwa chuma chawo mu Arctic, Popeza mudayamba chitukuko m'madera. Kuyenera anati za pokonzekera chisankho cha Pulezidenti Obama mu 2017, zomwe alinga malamulo ake poyerekezera ndi msika mafuta lonse.

Zoneneratu olakwika

Lero, mafuta akutsikira mu mtengo, ndi chifukwa chakuti pakati pa yophukira 2014, osinthitsa ambiri akuyembekezeka kuyambiranso mitengo mafuta atagwa. Mu Mapa ake a akatswiri dziko amaipidwa ku ziphunzitso nkhondo yapachiweniweni ku dziko Arab ndi kutaya. nkhani zonama za kuwonongedwa kwa maulendo zoyendera ndi malo kupanga mafuta m'mayiko Arab sanali kusewera mu manja a speculators. M'malo kukula sikhala kuwonongedwa akayakaya ku Iraq ndi Libya sizinachitike. M'malo mwake, pali tsopano si ntchito nokha, koma awiri pakati katundu. nkhondo ndi kuti sikukuvulaza mafuta ndi mpweya makampani.

Iye mwachangu kuthamangitsa maufulu ake ndi Kurdistan zogulitsa kunja mafuta okwana $ 4 billion. Zofooka ndi akuyesetsa kuti asiye ntchito yobweretsa njira Iran idatha kulephera. M'chaka cha 2013 izo anatsimikizidwa ulamuliro wa quasi Arab Caliphate, kupyolera mwa amene msika anali kuwatumiza "Kumanzere" mafuta. State maphunziro yekha anakhudza zoyendera Europe wa theka malamulo ndi oletsedwa mafuta wotchipa.

Change njira

The Zithunzi za mitengo mafuta akupitiriza kusuntha downwards chifukwa kusintha kwambiri mwa njira zake yobereka. Athira asilikali US pa Syria zakulitsa Turkey malangizo a zogulitsa kunja kwa Iraq. Ikayamba wa kulimbana Khilafah chiwonongeko akukonza pafupifupi 27 ayenga ndi yaikulu Siriya mbewu. Chifukwa, Syria wasiya mndandanda wa ogulitsa chachikulu cha mafuta ku Iraq. malo ake anatengedwa ndi mayiko waphindu monga Turkey ndi Kurdistan. mmene kukumana More yabwino Zimachititsa akuponya mitengo dziko. mafuta aliyense wa mayiko a Iraq ndi nthawi theka m'matangadza kwambiri, zomwe ndi Russia. Kugwa mitengo mafuta adzapitiriza chifukwa cha mpikisano kwambiri pakati pa mayiko. Kutsitsa mfundo mtengo, ogulitsa lalikulu, makamaka OPEC, akufuna kukankhira mpikisano onse.

Mkangano America ndi Russia

Akatswiri ambiri ayesetsa chifukwa chake Russia akupeza mtengo mafuta, kumbukirani zinthu zakale "nkhondo ozizira" pakati pa America ndi Russia. The ziletso ziletso pa malo a nkhondo asilikali ndi Ukraine, sanali amphamvu mokwanira ndi chuma Russian wakhala si kuwawa. Chikaikiro zikusonyeza Pofuna kulimbikitsa ntchito za boma Russian ndi kulamulira mitengo mafuta dziko. Kutsitsa mtengo wa mafuta kumabweretsa kuchepetsa ndalama za boma ku mawu dollar. Choncho, ruble ndi dola imafoola. chuma dziko sadzatha kuthandiza makampani extractive mu mlingo woyenerera. Kutsutsana mu kopanda ichi ndi kuti dontho la mitengo mafuta anakhudzidwa osati Russian, komanso United States, mitundu ina yambiri.

zinthu Secondary kugwa mafuta

Ndandanda wa mitengo mafuta kuwonetsa azimuth kunsi, osati chifukwa cha wochenjera koyamba, mfundo zachuma. Malangizo kulimbikitsa zotsatira zambiri yachiwiri:

• Kusintha kwa nyengo mu dziko.
• Cholinga navigation kupeza minda yatsopano Arctic.
• Kuda Fukushima syndrome mu gawo la mphamvu. Msika gasi, mafuta awonjezera kwambiri mu mabuku.
• Yogwira chitukuko cha umisiri mafuta kuchira Kufunafuna mitundu zina za chitukuko kumunda.

Chimachitika n'chiyani?

Katswiri maganizo pa funso la chifukwa mtengo mafuta pang'ono akusemphana chifukwa mmene chuma chikuyendera mu dziko ndi yogwira gulu la msika mafuta dziko. Pankhaniyi, ambiri a osewera lolunjika pa ziyende bwino zimenezi. Pa nkhani imeneyi anafotokozanso maganizo awo ambiri a ogulitsa kwakukulu kwa katundu. Ndi mitengo mafuta lero, akatswiri ena analengeza pafupifupi $ 55:

• Ku mtengo pa $ 60 amakonda kudziwika ofufuza dziko, mafuta ndi makampani kufunsira Akatswiri amanena.
• US Energy Information Administration, mu January wotchedwa mulingo woyenera mafuta mtengo pa mbiya ya $ 58 dollars.
• The bungwe "Yaikulu", kufunsira za 150 ofufuza, amapereka Mapa wake kwa mitengo mafuta. Iwo amaneneratu kusintha pa mtengo wa mbiya ku madola 50 80.
• Akatswiri kudziwika kampani "Goldman Sachs" anaima pa Mapa wa $ 50.
• Bank of America Merrill Lynch ndi kubetcherana pa mtengo wa madola 40 pa mbiya.
• Pulezidenti wa Lukoil anakana mtengo wa mafuta pa $ 60 pa mbiya.
• Morgan Stanley Akatswiri amati woyamba - kotala chachiwiri cha 2015 mtengo wa mafuta kusungidwa mu $ 57. Pankhaniyi, wachitatu ndi wachinayi kotala ya chaka, monga mwa oimira kampaniyo, akulonjeza nyamuka lakuthwa mu mtengo wa mankhwala mafuta ndi mtengo wa $ 70.
• mabanki Swiss tikuyang'ana pa nkhaniyi ndipo pa zonse zidzakhala bwino. Iwo amakhulupirira mwa mitengo mafuta pa 70 - 85 dollars.

Ngakhale chakuti makampani akuluakulu mafuta a dziko pa za mapulani ndi ntchito, ankayembekezera akukhulupirira kwambiri. Ngakhale malamulo okhwima ya OPEC, ambiri a akatswiri timakonda kuganiza kuti posachedwapa zinthu zayamba limagwirizana pa msika mafuta dziko, ndi zomvetsa onse anapalamula m'mayiko awiriwa ndi makampani angathe kubwezeretsedwa. Padakali pano, kachitidwe kugwa, ndi chifukwa chake mtengo mafuta lero, palibe m'modzi adzawona ntchito kufotokoza.