Zotsatira za zilango pa chuma cha Russia. Zotsatira za kuika zilango. Economy of Russia lero

Chaka chino, chuma cha ku Russia chikukumana ndi mavuto ambiri padziko lonse. Mchitidwe wothandiza wogwiritsidwa ntchito ndi mayiko akunja ku Russia ukufotokozedwa mu zilango zosiyanasiyana. Kodi chikhalidwe chawo n'chiyani? Kodi zotsatira za zilango pa chuma cha Russia ndi chiyani? Kodi mipata yotsegulidwa ndi Russian Federation chifukwa cha kusintha kwa mgwirizano kunja kwake ndi yotani?

Chofunika kwambiri cha zilango

Malingana ndi maganizo omwe anthu ambiri amakhulupirira, kuika zilango kwa Russian Federation makamaka chifukwa cha ndale za Russia pankhani ya mavuto a ku Ukraine. Mayiko a kumadzulo kwa Africa, ambiri omwe ali mbali ya NATO, amaona kuti sizingaloledwe kwa akuluakulu a boma la Russia kuti achite zinthu zotsutsana ndi Crimea, komanso madera akummawa a Ukraine.

Momwemo, zilango ndizochuma ndi ndale. Mbali yoyamba, iyi ndi mtundu wosiyana, pa yachiwiri - kutsegulira kwa akuluakulu ndi mabungwe alamulo m'ndandanda zoyenera.

Periodization ya zilango

Talingalirani momwe zinachitikira zilango zotsutsana ndi Russian Federation. Akatswiri amakhulupirira kuti phukusi loyambirira la zofunikira linakhazikitsidwa mwamsanga pambuyo poti Russia idagwirizane ndi referendum ku Crimea ndipo idaphatikizapo derali momwe likugwiritsidwira ntchito. Western akuganiza kuti zochita za akuluakulu a boma, komanso udindo wa Russian Federation ndi oletsedwa. Zotsatira zazitsutso zonsezi zinagwirizanitsidwa, monga akatswiri amakhulupirira, ndi kuwonjezereka kwa zinthu ku Ukraine.

Zosowa: zoopsya ku chuma cha Russia

Zotsatira zake ndi chiyani pakukhazikitsa chilango ku Russia? Akatswiri amadziwa kuti mavuto aakulu angabwere mu gawo la zochokera kunja. Chowonadi ndi chakuti chuma cha Russia chikudalira kwambiri kuitanitsa kwa sayansi-zamakono zamakono, zopangira zaumisiri, mankhwala osokoneza bongo, ndipo, makamaka, chakudya. Makampani akuluakulu a ku Russia omwe amagwira nawo ntchito kunja ndi mayiko a European Union, omwe amagwiritsa ntchito zilango motsutsana ndi Russian Federation. Ngati chiwerengero cha zachuma chimachitika, kukhala kosafunikira kwa malonda, akatswiri amati, sikudzatenga nthawi yaitali.

Mufunafuna ndalama

Zotsatira za zilango pa chuma cha Russia zikhoza kuwonetsedwa momveka bwino pakukhudzidwa ndi mayiko akunja. Makamaka, ngongole za ngongole za Russian Federation, zomwe ndizo zizindikiro zazikulu za kukongola kwa dziko ku likulu lakunja, zikhoza kuvutika. Chotsatira cha kuchepa kwa chiwongoladzanja chachuma chingakhale kuchepa kwa kukula kwa GDP, azachuma amakhulupirira. Chuma cha Russia masiku ano, akatswiri amati, makamaka amadalira ndalama zamayiko akunja. Kusinthanitsa kwa malonda a RTS ndi MICEX kumakhudza zinthu zambiri chifukwa cha kukopa kwa ndalama za mayiko akunja.

Komabe, akatswiri amakhulupirira kuti, ndalama zachilendo sizingakhale zachiyambi. Zikuoneka kuti malo omwe amalonda ochokera ku EU ndi US adzakongoletsedwa, akunena, ndi akuluakulu ochokera ku mayiko a BRICS, omwe, malinga ndi akatswiri ambiri, akugwirizana tsopano ku Russia. Choncho, kuchepetsa chiwerengero cha ziwerengero mu njira za njira zomwe zinayambitsidwa ku US ndi EU sizingakhale ndi gawo lalikulu pakukopa malonda.

Zosankha ndi mabanki

Kodi zotsatira za chigamulo cha mabanki a ku Russia zingatheke bwanji? Mu gawo lino, akatswiri amakhulupirira kuti, kuthekera kwa kuopsezedwa kwa zoopseza ku chuma cha dziko ndi chachikulu. Chowonadi n'chakuti kayendedwe ka mabanki ku Russia akuphatikizidwa kwambiri padziko lonse lapansi (zomwe, makamaka, zimayang'aniridwa ndi US ndi mabungwe ake akumadzulo) kuti ndalama zamayiko akunja zimatha kupeza njira zofunikira zogwirira ntchito. Nkhani za mabanki a ku America ndi ku Ulaya akugwiritsidwa ntchito mwakhama ndi makampani a Russia. Ndipo ngati ngongole ndi mabungwe azachuma a mayiko a kumadzulo amalingalira kuzimitsa malipiro awo, ndiye akatswiri amati, zikhoza kuwononga kwambiri mabungwe a Russian Federation akugwira ntchito ndi mabanki akunja.

Zosokoneza (kuchokera ku EU mbali) zinayambika motsutsana ndi akuluakulu akuluakulu a Russia ndi mabungwe azachuma, monga VTB, Sberbank, VEB. Makamaka, kuyambira kumayambiriro kwa mwezi wa August, nzika za EU zaletsedwa kupeza mitundu yina ya mabungwe awa. Malinga ndi olemba, pakuchita izi zikutanthauza chinthu chimodzi chokha - mabanki a ku Russia akusiya kukhala ndi mwayi wogulitsa misika. Ndipo chifukwa chakuti akhoza kukhala ndi mavuto ndi kulipira kwa ngongole zamakono, kulembedwa kwa ngongole zatsopano ndi malonda.

VISA - ku Russia?

Chimodzi mwa zochitika zodziwika kwambiri pa nkhaniyi monga zotsatira za chilango pa mabanki a Russian Federation amatha kuwonedwa ngati kulepheretsedwa ndi machitidwe angapo akuluakulu a ngongole padziko lonse - VISA ndi MasterCard - yambiri ya ngongole ya Russia ndi mabungwe azachuma, monga Sobinbank, , "SMP Bank". Makasitomala a mabankiwa sakanatha kulipira pogwiritsa ntchito mayiko kupeza mayendedwe. Panthaŵi imodzimodziyo, akatswiri amavomereza kuti sizidzatheka kuthetsa kwathunthu ku msika wa Russia VISA ndi MasterCard . Ngati izi zichitika, ndiye kuti padzakhala kuopsya kwa kukhazikika kwa ndalama za EU.

Chotsatira china cha chilango chabungwe la banki chikhoza kukhala kuchepetsa kubwereka kwa mabungwe a Russian kumadzulo. Ndalama zomwe zimapezeka ku mabanki akumadzulo zimakhala zosangalatsa kwa anthu a ku Russia (makamaka chifukwa cha kuchepetsa chiwongoladzanja). Komabe, zotsatira zenizeni za zoletsedwa pa bizinesi potsatsa ngongole sizingakhale zofunikira ngati amalonda amatha kuyanjana ndi misika ina malinga ndi ngongole. Mmodzi mwa akatswiri a Russia okhulupirira kwambiri amaona Chingerezi.

Kodi zonsezi ndi mabanki?

Thandizani mabanki a Russia ku zilango zomwe zakonzedwa ndi Central Bank. Makamaka, m'mawailesi akhala akufotokozedwa ndi bungwe la Central Bank kuti, ngati kuli kotheka, ndalama zosungira ndalama zamayiko osiyanasiyana zingagwiritsidwe ntchito pachifukwa ichi. Mabanki akuluakulu a Russian Federation adanena kuti ali okonzekera chilango. Otsogolera a Sberbank, makamaka adalengeza kuti bungweli lili ndi zokwanira, machitidwe oyendetsa ntchito komanso luso loti azipitirizabe kugwira ntchito pansi pa zachuma ndi ndale. Gazprombank ndi VTB inalimbikitsanso anthu kuti zochita za US ndi EU sizidzakhudza kuthekera kwa ndalama kwa mabungwe. Motero, zotsatira za zilango pa chuma cha Russia pambali ya mabanki sizingakhale zofunikira kwambiri.

Zosowa ndi Mpata

Malinga ndi akatswiri ambiri azachuma, mayiko a EU ndi mwayi wabwino kwambiri wokhazikitsa bizinesi mu chuma cha Russia, chomwe, chifukwa cha kuyang'ana kwao mafuta, sichikulirakulira.

Zopambana kwambiri, akatswiri okhulupirira amakhulupirira, alipo mu gawo la kulowetsa-kulowetsa. Russia ili ndi chuma chokwanira - potsata zowonjezera kupanga ndi zipangizo, ndi mwazinthu za sayansi, kutulutsa zochuluka za katundu wotumizidwa kuchokera kunja.

Mphamvu zoyankha

Kodi njira zomwe Russia angatsutse zilango ndi ziti? Choyamba, tiyenera kuzindikira zomwe zinachitika mu 2006, zaka zambiri zisanachitike zovuta zoyenera za vuto la Chiyukireniya zinayamba, lamulo lokhudza zochitika zachuma zomwe zingagwiritsidwe ntchito ngati dziko liyenera kuyankha zolakwa, zomwe ziri zoopsya Masewera a Russia, pamlingo wa maiko akunja. Chifukwa chake, zida zoyendetsera malamulo zomwe zingagwiritsidwe ntchito ngati zotsutsana ndi chilango cha Russia chilipo. Komanso, pali umboni wakuti zipani za Federal Assembly zikuyesa kukhazikitsa malamulo atsopano omwe angapangitse zowonjezereka ku Russia kudziko lonse lapansi. Makamaka, pali lingaliro lakuti malamulo atsopano angaphatikizepo zinthu zomwe zolola kutenga katundu wa makampani akumadzulo omwe ali ku Russia (onse payekha ndi apadera).

Yankho la zoletsedwa

Ngakhale kuti zifukwa zomwe boma la Russia linapangidwira ziweruziro, zinagwiritsidwa ntchito, malinga ndi ndemanga za akuluakulu a boma, zopanda nzeru komanso zosagwirizana ndi malingaliro, zotsutsana ndi mayiko a kumadzulo, zofanana ndi zotsutsana ndi Russia, zinagwiritsidwa ntchitobe. Makamaka, panthawi yoyamba ya zochitika za mayiko, akuluakulu a Russian Federation adasankha kulemba mndandanda wa anthu omwe ali ndi nzika za kumadzulo, omwe akuletsedwa kulowa ku Russia.

Pamene VISA ndi MasterCard, monga tafotokozera pamwambapa, adaleka kupereka makadi a mabanki angapo a ku Russia, akuluakulu a boma la Russia adasankha kulimbikitsa ntchitoyo, choyamba, kukhazikitsa ndondomeko ya malipiro, ndipo kachiwiri, kuti akope Utumiki wa Chitchi cha China - UnionPay, Chimene chingakhale mpikisano waukulu kwa atsogoleri a dziko lapansi. Izi zikanachititsa VISA ndi MasterCard kukhala ofunika, malinga ndi akatswiri ena azachuma, kuwonongeka - mazana mamiliyoni a madola.

Pulogalamu yaikulu kwambiri ya malamulo a Russia ndizoletsedwa ku Russia kwa zakudya zambirimbiri, zomwe zimapangidwa ndi malonda a EU (komanso mabungwe a Canada, Australia ndi USA). Kumayambiriro kwa mwezi wa August, pulezidenti wa ku Russia anapereka lamuloli. Mndandanda wa katundu umene unagwa pansi pa nthaka unali ndi zakudya zosiyanasiyana - nyama, mkaka, nsomba, masamba, zipatso. Malinga ndi ndalama, chiwerengero chonse cha zolembera zofanana, ofufuza omwe anawerengedwa, panthawi yoyambitsirana zapiritsizo zinali $ 9 biliyoni.

Komanso m'mwezi wa August, kusintha kunapangidwira mu gawo la mafakitale ofunika. Makamaka, mu gawo la zinthu zogula dziko, zovala za nsalu, zikopa ndi zitsamba zinaletsedwa. Zoona, akatswiri sankaona kuti akuluakulu a boma la Russia adasunthirapo izi, chifukwa chakuti zotsatiridwazo zimakhudzidwa ndi zochokera m'mayiko onse, kuphatikizapo zomwe, pamodzi ndi Russian Federation, ndi ziwalo za Customs Union, osati ma Western.

Zotsatira za "zisankho" za EU

Mfundo yakuti madera a kumadzulo ku Russia akuyambitsa mavuto angabweretse mavuto pamtundu wamtengo wapatali, tanena kale, tanena za mafakitale angapo monga chitsanzo. Koma kodi amitundu akunja okha, tiyeni tizinenenso makina omwe amamanga makina, kumverera nthawi yomweyo. Anthu omwe amapereka zipangizo ku Russia? Ndi zotani zomwe zingatheke chifukwa cha zilango za EU? Malingana ndi imodzi mwa malipoti a Reuters, anthu a ku Ulaya ambiri, mwinamwake, sangatero. Mmodzi mwa anthu ogwira ntchito kwambiri a Russia mu gawo lachuma ndi Germany. Pali ziwerengero: ntchito pafupifupi 300,000 ku Germany mwanjira ina ikuwonetsera ntchito ya anthu m'madera oyanjana ndi Russian Federation. Akatswiri amakhulupirira kuti zogulitsa kuchokera ku Germany kupita ku Russia zikhoza kuchepa ndi makumi angapo peresenti (makamaka m'zinthu zamagetsi). Panthawi imodzimodziyo, pali lingaliro lakuti kusokonezeka kwa chiyanjano ndi Russian Federation sikudzakhudza kwambiri boma lonse la FRG chuma chonse. Mwachidule chifukwa gawo la tsopano la Russia mu gawo la malonda achilendo a ku Germany sichidutsa tsopano 4%. Motero, zotsatira za zilango pa bizinesi ku Ulaya zikuwoneka ndi akatswiri monga okwanira mokwanira.

Chakudya "zosasankhidwa"

Taganizirani mbali yokhudza zovuta kwambiri, malinga ndi akatswiri, zotsutsana ndi akuluakulu a boma la Russia - kuletsa kufunika kwa katundu kuchokera ku EU. Akatswiri ambiri amakhulupirira kuti ogulitsa ulimi wa ku Ulaya amavutika kwambiri ndi vutoli. Kuperekedwa ku Russia kwa ambiri a iwo kunali chitsimikiziro cha phindu, komanso kwa mabungwe ena, ndipo mwa njira yaikulu ya malonda. Pezani ogula m'misika ina, akatswiri okhulupirira amakhulupirira kuti, makampani ogulitsa zakudya ochokera ku EU adzakhala mu nthawi yochepa kwambiri. Ndipo kotero posachedwa bizinesi yawo sizingakhale yopindulitsa.

Foundation of Europe

Panthaŵi imodzimodziyo, akatswiri ambiri amakhulupirira kuti zotsatira za kusokonekera kwa EU zingakhale zosafunika kwenikweni, makamaka, zomwe zimakhudza chilango cha Russia. Gawo la malonda aulimi ochokera ku European Union kupita ku Russian Federation ndi osachepera 5 peresenti mu chuma cha mgwirizano wandale. Ndipo izi ziribe kanthu kuti Russia ndi msika wachiwiri waukulu kwambiri mu gawo lino la EU mu gawo ili. Palinso umboni wakuti bungwe la European Union lidzabweretsa ndalama zowonongeka kuchokera ku "unsanctions" zochokera ku Russian Federation, pogwiritsa ntchito ndalama za thumba lapadera. Zoona, kukula kwake, akatswiri amati, siwopambana kwambiri - milioni 400 miliyoni. Dziko lomwe lingathe kuvutika ndi "unsanctions" liri lamphamvu kuposa ena - Finland. Chifukwa cha malo oyandikana nawo, dziko lino ndi Russian Federation ali ndi mgwirizano wapamtima. Pafupifupi 25 peresenti ya zogulitsa kuchokera ku Finland zimatumizidwa ku Russia. Pa nthawi yomweyo, gawo la chakudya mmenemo ndilopitirira 3%.

Zokhumba zokhala wokhutira

Kodi zotsatira za chilango cha ku Russia chinali chiyani? Akatswiri ena amakhulupirira kuti chakudya cha odyetsa kuchokera ku EU chatsegula mwayi waukulu kwa alimi a ku Russia. M'magulu ambiri, msika wa msika unamasulidwa, kapena osachepera kwambiri. Pali lingaliro loti alimi akulima ochokera ku Russia sali okonzeka kuwonjezereka kwakukulu, ndipo pakali pano pali zochitika ziwiri zomwe zingatheke: kudzazidwa kwa niches potsatsa ogula katundu ochokera m'mayiko omwe sanagwidwe pansi, kapena osafunika kwambiri pa chuma Kuwonekera kwa chosowa choyenera cha katundu. Ndipo, motero, kuwonjezeka kwa mtengo.

Chuma cha Russia lerolino, akatswiri ambiri amakhulupirira, sitingakwanitse kutsimikiziranso kuti polojekitiyi imalowetsedwe - kuphatikizapo m'munda wa ulimi. Otsutsa amanena kuti kuwonjezeka kwa kugulitsa mitengo ya mankhwala osiyanasiyana kunkachitika nthawi yofulumira kwambiri kuyambira pamene "kukhazikitsidwa". Malingana ndi zomwe akatswiri amanena, kumapeto kwa 2014 mitundu ina ya zinthu zogulitsa zikhoza kukwera pamtengo woposa 30%. Pafupipafupi, zinthu zomwe zimapanga dengu lalikulu, kuwonjezeka kwa mtengo kungakhale pafupifupi 15%. Pali zotheka, akatswiri amakhulupirira, kuti ubwino wa mankhwala operekedwa pamasalefu udzagwa. Ku Russia, komanso m'mayiko ambiri komwe akuyenera kuitanitsa katundu, miyezo yopanga zokolola sizakhazikika kwambiri ku Ulaya.