Kodi n'chiyani chidzachitikire mafuta ndi ruble pambuyo nsonga Doha?

Mu Soviet Union, nzika wamba za mitengo mafuta dziko analibe chidwi, iwo ali nazo zokwanira nkhawa zina, koma tsopano wakhala mutu ngakhale pakati anapuma. Igwani hydrocarbon zilembedwe adazindikira chikwama changa ndi chirichonse kuchokera biliyoni ogwira ntchito wamba, amene ankakonda kucheza tchuthi awo pogwiritsa yachilendo, amene anali kwa nthawi yaitali angakwanitse ndithu. Against dola wofooka ruble, ndipo zimenezi zinakhumudwitsa anthu ambiri. Chifukwa cha kuwonongeka kwa zinthu zachuma, onani ziletso Western woyikidwa pambuyo analanda dziko la Crimea, koma akatswiri amanena kuti kwambiri, ndi zina zambiri, anthu njira chonyansa chifukwa cha kugwa mitengo mafuta. Choncho chimene izo zimatengera chimene miyeso n'kupita patsogolo njirazo?

Chifukwa mafuta anagwa?

Mafuta - mankhwala ndi mtengo umadalira pa okwanira ndi akumufuna. Izo zatsimikiziridwa kuti kunali cholakwika zowerengera yotentha ndi stockbrokers, ndipo inkakhala anakokomeza ndi mabuku yaiwisi pa Zinatumiza. M'mawu ena, alimi ndi ogula ankaganiza kuti mafuta kwambiri kuposa kwenikweni anali, ndipo zinatha nthawi yaitali. Zingaoneke, ndi kuganizira kupotoza ili chabe kwa kukonzanso, ndi chirichonse adzagwera malo. Part zimene zinachitika, mtengo panauka kwa mlingo wa $ 29 pa mbiya, koma akale koposa zana ndipo sanapeze kukhala pa nambala awiri ndi theka nthawi zochepa, ndi zifukwa zomveka. Choyamba, chotero msika waukulu, monga hydrocarbon ndi, inert ndendende chifukwa cha kukula, ndipo kachiwiri, kufunika akhala otsika kwambiri, koma okwanira kuchuluka pambuyo zochotsa ziletso ndi Iran. Mayiko yotulutsa mafuta anayamba kuonetsa khama la mgwirizano, tisaiwale kuti udindo wa Russia si koipa pakati pawo.

mafuta yosawerengeka

Limagwirira cha zochita pa mtengo wa view lophweka. Ngati inu simungakhoze kuwonjezera kufunika, ndipo chisanu chifukwa cha kuchepa bizinesi dziko, makamaka mu Latin America, ndi imodzi yokha - kuti amaundana mabuku kupanga. Ngakhale buku zotheka miyeso olimba, kukwaniritsa zotsatira kunapezeka kuti kukhala zovuta kuposa kuyembekezera. Mtengo wa mafuta adzauka ngakhale kuti Jack ngati kupanga ake yafupika, koma osati m'dziko lomwelo, pafupifupi zonse mwakamodzi. Mu kuonongeka mosalephera pa nthaŵi imene ndalama Zofika yafupika. Ndipo ngakhale maiko OPEC, ndi tanthauzo, funani kutsata lamulo kuphatikiza sitingakhoze kugwirizana pakati pawo, mikhalidwe imene kupereka nawonso anapereka ndiponso Libya, Iraq, ndipo tsopano Iran, mgwirizano uwu ndi mabvuto kwambiri. Pa nkhani imeneyi, munthu aliyense kwa iye yekha ndipo akufuna 'kuyenda likuvutika ena. " Tiyeni munthu kumachepetsa akuvutika kupanga ndi wosalandira phindu, ndi dziko lililonse la maiko izo likuyesetsa kuti asataye ndi kusangalala ndi zipatso za khama ena. Izi zinachitika kwa nthawi yaitali, ndi masewera ndi amatikumbutsa yosawerengeka ndi chonyenga wake. Saudi Arabia anasonyeza mphwayi wathunthu, kusonyeza kuti mtengo wotsika alandiridwa ndithu, ndipo Achimereka mwazisiya pa msika zambiri onse atsopano a katundu. funsolo linali okha amene adzapulumuke yaitali kuposa mpikisano. Makampani ambiri zinatha ndipo mwa masewera, pamene ena yafupika kupanga, ena ankagulitsa choimira. Wamphamvu iwo sakanakhoza asamathe.

vuto aku Iran

Mu February 2016 makampani migodi Saudi Arabia, Russia, Venezuela ndi Qatar, kenako ndinaganiza kukhazikitsa chotchinga kukula kwa mitengo mafuta. Kuti zimenezi zitheke, limodzi kuyambirira chisankho pa kuletsa kupanga pa mlingo umene unachitika mu January chaka chino. Kulemba muyeso ayenera kutenga malo pa April 17 pa msonkhano, ndiye zofunika kwambiri cha chimasanduka mu dziko. The vuto lalikulu kulepheretsa ntchito muyeso kuti mu ntchito mpaka wakhala chokana Iran ndi kuthandiza wamba Consolidated njira, omwe anali nawo khumi ndi theka la maiko nkhawa. Nkhani unachitikira pakati Nduna ya Energy, kwa anthu ammudzi dziko ndi Novak Saudi Minister Mafuta Ali al-Naimi ntchito anauzidwa kuti kupanga choletsa udzachitike ngakhale Tehran akupitiriza kutulutsa mafuta monga mmene iye akufunira.

"Kuzizira" mamembala

Malinga Novak, mazira mafuta kupanga sangathe limati khumi okha kale anapanga chisankho ichi, ndi ena aliyense amene akufuna kuthandiza njira umalimbana kukula mitengo ya zipangizo kuti adzakhala olandiridwa. Pa nthawi yomweyo kukakamiza aliyense kapena imposition wa ziletso pa gawo la OPEC ndi ena "amene anagwirizana" mayiko mulibemo. magwero akazembe kuti pambuyo mawu awa Riyadh salinso kutenga ku malo nkhani Iran, ngakhale kale zogwirizana kuthekera kuzizira ndi malamulo a dziko la kupanga. Tehran chotero kutali anakana kuthandiza OPEC ndi Russia, ndipo ali ndi zifukwa zabwino - kwa zaka chuma cha dziko italowa ziletso, ndipo tsopano akufuna kupita ku mlingo wakale wolowa hydrocarbon. Yopanga ku Iran mu mwezi watha alamuka miliyoni 2.9 Nchito. Mbiya kuti 3.2.

Kulimbana pakati mumaganiza awiri

Vuto kufunika kwa mafuta amakhalabe kovuta, malinga OPEC, ndi panopa 1.2 miliyoni okha migolo patsiku. Choncho zimakhala zovuta kuyembekezera kuti ngakhale nsonga Doha ndi zotsatira zake kukhudzanso pa zinthu msika, ndi mtengo adzapita zikuchepa, nawonso ankafuna silikugwirizana ndi okwanira. Komabe, kuchita chinachake Komabe tinkafunikira, makamaka chifukwa cha kuchepa profitability mabuku mafuta kupanga US pansi, ndipo kufunika ndi pang'ono ndi pang'ono ine ndinapita mu kukula. Market anachita mtengo kuposa chizindikiro cha $ 44. Iyo imayimba ndi kuwonjezeka masiku yobweretsa aku Iran ndi aku Iraq. Chimene munthu kukhala kachitidwe ofala tsopano zovuta zisanachitike.

Mapanganowo amayembekezera kapena Poyembekezera bwino?

masanjidwe World zochokera osati pa mfundo konkire, malingana Pamlingo waukulu pa ziyembekezo za. Udachitikira adzaimira mu Doha bwanji Russian MICEX ndi RTS, anafika panopa mfundo pazipita sanaone kuyambira pa kuchimwa kwa 2008 mpaka lero. Analimbitsa ruble kusinthitsa ndalama ndi yuro (zosakwana 74 rubles.) Ndipo dollar US. The Russian ndalama national waonetsa ziwawa kukula, ndi yachangu pakati m'mayiko osauka. Zimenezi zabwino sayenera Komabe, chifukwa maganizo kwambiri wosangalala, iwo amayamba ndi zizindikiro koma panalibe zikayenda bwino, kotero akalozera, komanso maphunziro akhoza kusewera kumbuyo.

mitundu anayi Zoneneratu Katswiri yochepa

Nkhani za zimene zidzachitike m'tsogolo akhoza kukhala mu njira zosiyanasiyana, koma zoona chifukwa cha anayi okha, ndipo iwo onse zimadalira udindo wa Iran. Mosakayikira ambiri (35%) ndi mwayi kukambirana popanda thandizo Tehran kwa izi pafupifupi safuna kusonyeza khama. Ntchito zotsatira: mafuta pa $ 45 pa mbiya "Brent", dola 65 rubles. Yachiwiri - Iran kuthandiza udachitikira, koma anakonza kuonjezera kupanga (Mwina 30%). Mtengo wa mafuta zidzakhala chomwecho, ndiye $ 45, kapena ngakhale apamwamba, pa $ 47, ndi ruble an'dzamuka 64 pa dola. N'zotheka lachitatu sewero, pamwamba pa dziko sitingakhoze kugwirizana (Mwina "Ndalama Bank" Mapa, 20%). Zidzakhala zoipa, dollar adzauka mu mtengo kwa rubles 75-78, mafuta kugwa ku $ 30, pamene ochuluka kwambiri chidaliro kuti 35. 15% ya Akuti Mwina nkhani wosangalala, ngati Iran kulandira akufuna mawu ndi malire kupanga kuonjezera miliyoni 2.9 Nchito. bar. patsiku. Pankhaniyi, tingayembekezere mtengo $ 47 kapena ngakhale $ 50. ruble adzalimbikitsa kwa 62-63 rubles.

ziyembekezo yaitali

Musamachite udachitikira Doha anabwera kanthu, palibe chifukwa, mwinamwake izo sizikanakhala muyenera kukonza. Akatswiri "Ndalama" akusonyeza kuti kuyembekezera zotsatira pafupifupi, mtengo wa mafuta madola 42,5 pa mbiya kotala 2, 45 3 Rd, ndi kumapeto kwa chaka lidzafika 47,5 kapena 50. Kuchepetsa kukula kudzakhala chitsitsimutso kupanga Argentina, Libya, Brazil ndi mayiko ena omwe makampani ndi stagnating. Ndi chiyambi cha 2017 ndi kusinthitsa ndalama dollar ndi ntchito mu osiyanasiyana 58-60 rubles (zachuma mkulu wa "BCS"). Akutsutsana katswiri wina, Kuzmin ( "Kubadwa Kwatsopano Capital"), iye amafuna RUR / USD 65. Tiyeni tiwone amene iwo ali wolondola.