Lingaliro la msonkho komanso zolipira, ndi choonadi cha kusintha kwa zachuma

Kukula amakono a masamu njira kusanthula zachuma molondola amapenda zitsanzo prognostic ndi palembali njira zazikulu ndi kulongosola mfundo msonkho ndi zingati kuti kusintha kwa chuma. Sichangozi ndi econometrics ano ntchito ngati chida kuthandiza kapena kutsutsa ena maudindo ongolankhula.

M'dziko ganizo zachuma ndi kuika patsogolo mfundo zambiri zokhudzana misonkho mphamvu ya zotsatira msonkho, ndipo Kuwonjezera angalongosolere chimene chimapanga mfundo msonkho ndi choonadi mu zitsanzo zosiyanasiyana za chuma. Pogwirizana ndi chiphunzitso neoclassical chuma 70s lapansi. m'ma XX. Iye anayamba chiphunzitso cha okwanira. amaukonda - makamaka asayansi American zotsatira choonadi Leffera kuganizira mabala msonkho kutero. Oimira chiphunzitso umafuna pakati zimayambitsa waukulu wa sizimadziwika kufufuma mkulu mitengo ya msonkho ndi mawu okhwima kupereka msonkho komanso zolipira.

Kaya chuma Russian kuwuka mu mitengo zogwirizana ndi ndalama msonkho? Kuti tiyankhe funso limeneli inu mukhoza kulingalira revenues mwachindunji kenako mozungulira onse msonkho monga ena ndalama pafupifupi msonkho kuchulukitsa ndi GDP, ntchito zachuma ndi masamu kusanthula njira.

Mu kukhazikitsa malumikizanidwe pakati pa mitengo awa ndi ogula mtengo index (a CPI), kunapezeka kuti zimakhudza mwachindunji kufufuma kupereka msonkho pakati pa mitengo yawo ndi mphamvu ya kufufuma ndi pafupifupi munthu akuchedwa imeneyi (wapamwamba malumikizanidwe koyefishienti imagwera pa kumwezi). Pa nthawi yomweyo, gawo pafupifupi misonkho mozungulira ku GDP, vuto la zachuma lomwe zambiri ankatembenukira ndi Mlengi ogula chikugwirizana zochepa kwambiri chilamulira chikhalidwe ndi mlingo wa kufufuma.

Zimenezi zikusonyeza kuti mphamvu ya misonkho mwachindunji ndi mitengo ndi kwambiri mofulumira yaikulu mitengo kuposa kusintha msonkho mozungulira, koma chifukwa kusintha ndi lingaliro kwambiri za msonkho ndi amalipiritsa. Komabe, Kugwirizana ndi sachita mkulu pakati pawo. Choncho, kuchuluka kwa misonkho, onse mwachindunji kapena kudzera m'njira zina, ali bwinobwino amayamba kufufuma, ndi ntchito yofunika pano akupitiriza kusewera ndi zodula zigawo kunja ndi zinthu zina zofunika kwa gawo dziko kupanga.

Tiyeni tibwerere ku malo ofunika a chiphunzitso cha ubale pakati pa bwana kwa ndalama, chuma ndi slowdown zachuma. Chosowa ndalama ndi chifukwa chachikulu zikuoneka kuti clotting ndalama. Onani udindo uwu chiphunzitso amachita zotheka pa Khadili ubwenzi mgwirizano pakati pa mlingo avareji ndalama mwachindunji msonkho ndi mlingo wa profitability katundu anagulitsa. Monga ulamuliro, kudalira izi ndi otsika. N'chimodzimodzinso ndi ubwenzi wa kugwirizana gawo misonkho mozungulira ku GDP ndi mlingo wa profitability kwa nthawi yeniyeni. Apa, mtengo zoipa Ndi mmene magawanidwe anati malinga osiyanitsidwa, i.e. ikuluikulu kukula kwa misonkho mozungulira, m'munsi mlingo wa profitability.

Zikatere analenga komwe chiphunzitso chakale cha zopereka msonkho ndi ena losandulizika, ndi katundu msonkho ali basi tinatengera kwa ogula ndi mtengo njila kufufuma ngati mtengo kuchuluka kwa ndalama ulimi. Zimenezi zikusonyeza zina malumikizanidwe kusanthula ndi ubwenzi mgwirizano pakati pa mlingo wa ndalama pa ruble wa linanena bungwe ndi mlingo wa ndalama msonkho kwa GDP ruble.

Mwachidule, mmene msonkho pa dzuwa la kupanga dziko kuliganizira wapadera. Normal tiyenera kuiona monga dongosolo msonkho, lingaliro la msonkho komanso zolipira, amene palibe zopinga kuti Kugawilidwa kwanthaka imayenera chuma.

Komabe, Kupenda zikuchitika a mwambo msonkho akutsimikiza mfundo zotsatirazi:

a) otsogolera mu m'badwo wa mozungulira misonkho kufufuma ndalama, choncho kupondereza kupanga;

b) zotsatira negligible pa mitengo ya dzuwa mwachindunji msonkho;

Low kudalira pakati waukulu zazikulu za citukuko zizindikiro - mitengo ya msonkho ndi likulu kubwerera, lomwe mfundo zimamangidwa kudziwika msonkho chitsanzo-Western akatswiri onse - amalola kuti mumakumbukira nthawi za mfundo za ndondomeko ya kusintha mu dziko ndi kupanda kufuna aliyense kuti mwachindunji kutengera kwa chuma zoweta.